首页> 外文会议>Biennial International Pipeline Conference(IPC 2004) vol.3; 20041004-08; Calgary(CA) >DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK RANKING TOOL BASED ON QUANTITATIVE METHODS
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DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK RANKING TOOL BASED ON QUANTITATIVE METHODS

机译:基于定量方法的风险排序工具的开发

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US pipeline integrity management regulations require operators to rank the risks caused by their operations. Many operators use qualitative methods for this risk ranking process. Such methods have several benefits including simplicity and flexibility. Unfortunately, they rely heavily on engineering judgment and produce results that are very specific to the pipeline system(s) being ranked. This makes it extremely difficult to relate the outputs from different systems or companies within an organization. This paper describes the development and application of a risk ranking approach that requires less judgment and provides the user with an estimate of the true risk of operating the pipeline. Quantitative methods, based on an understanding of structural mechanics, are applied to seven of the nine threat categories listed in ASME B31.8S in order to determine the pipeline's reliability. An assessment of risk to life is achieved by combining the output from structural mechanics models with a quantitative consequence of failure model. The software operates on a GIS platform, making it easier to demonstrate compliance with the integrity data management requirements that are now part of the relevant federal codes. Results produced from the quantitative approach have been compared to those generated by qualitative methods, in a case study. This illustrates some important differences between the two and show that a more rigorous, quantitative approach can provide the operator with significant benefits including the ability to generate meaningful results with less data. In particular, quantitative methods have the potential to allow operators to move towards a more performance-based approach to their ongoing integrity management processes.
机译:美国管道完整性管理法规要求运营商对运营造成的风险进行排名。许多操作员在此风险排名过程中使用定性方法。这样的方法具有几个优点,包括简单性和灵活性。不幸的是,他们严重依赖工程判断并产生非常具体的结果,这些结果与所排名的管道系统非常相关。这使得关联组织中不同系统或公司的输出变得极为困难。本文介绍了风险分级方法的开发和应用,该方法需要较少的判断,并为用户提供了操作管道的真实风险的估计。基于对结构力学的理解,定量方法应用于ASME B31.8S中列出的九种威胁类别中的七种,以确定管道的可靠性。通过将结构力学模型的输出与失效模型的定量结果相结合,可以评估生命危险。该软件在GIS平台上运行,可以更轻松地证明符合完整性数据管理要求,这些要求现在已成为相关联邦法规的一部分。在案例研究中,将定量方法产生的结果与定性方法产生的结果进行了比较。这说明了两者之间的一些重要区别,并表明更严格,更定量的方法可以为操作员带来重大好处,包括以更少的数据生成有意义的结果的能力。尤其是,定量方法有可能使运营商在其正在进行的完整性管理过程中朝着更加基于性能的方向发展。

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