Speed Prior and Optimal Simulation of the Future

机译：速度优先和未来的最佳模拟

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Solomonoff's optimal but noncomputable strategy for predicting the future assumes the observations are drawn from a computable prior probability distribution. Here we make the additional assumption that things that are hard to compute are less likely, such that the cumulative prior probability of all data whose computation costs at least O(n) time is inversely proportional to n. This leads to the Speed Prior and a computable strategy for an optimally accurate simulation of the future, given previous observations. We conclude with several predictions concerning the future of our universe.

机译：所罗门诺夫（Solomonoff）预测未来的最佳策略是，假设观察结果是基于可计算的先验概率分布得出的。在这里，我们做出一个额外的假设，即难以计算的事物发生的可能性较小，因此所有其计算成本至少为O（n）时间的数据的累积先验概率与n成反比。鉴于先前的观察，这导致了“速度先验”和一种可计算的策略，可以对未来进行最佳的精确模拟。我们以关于宇宙未来的一些预测作为结论。

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《Business and Industry Symposium and 2002 Advanced Simulation Technologies Conference Apr 14-18, 2002 San Diego, California》|2002年|p.40-45|共6页
会议地点 San Diego CA(US);San Diego CA(US)
作者
Juergen Schmidhuber;
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作者单位

IDSIA Galleria 2, 6928 Manno (Lugano), Switzerland;

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会议组织
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类工业经济;
关键词
speed prior; computable optimal inductive inference; optimal simulation of the future; future of the universe;

机译：速度先验;可计算的最佳归纳推理;对未来的最佳模拟;宇宙的未来;

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Speed Prior and Optimal Simulation of the Future

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