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首页> 外文会议>Conference Proceedings 32; Conference on Smart Growth and Transportation: Issues and Lessons Learned; 20020908-10; Baltimore,MD(US) >Development Pattern Trends and Smart Growth
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Development Pattern Trends and Smart Growth

机译：发展格局趋势与智能增长

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I'm not a transportation expert, so it is a little intimidating to be in this room full of transportation experts talking about transportation. My area is land use, and we like to think that what it is and where you put it has a lot to do with transportation. I am going to look at some of the trends that have determined the development pattern within which you put your transportation solutions. Where did growth go and why? What was that growth? Then we will look at some new trends. I totally agree that demographics are destiny. I want to go deeper into that and look not only at the short-term trends over the next 5 to 10 years but also at some of the things we know about how people make decisions at different points in their lives, and how that influences where they go in terms of product and location choices. I'll go through some of these trends quickly because I suspect you spend a lot of time thinking about them. We see faster growth in suburbs versus cities in the past decade. One important thing in thinking about the development pattern we have now and the type of development pattern we will have in the future is "driver" and "follower" uses. By "driver" use, I don't mean a car, I mean housing—looking at where housing went and how that led to retail jobs and later office jobs following the housing. If there are some shifts or opportunities to shift where housing goes, what happens to those retail and office jobs?
机译：我不是交通专家，所以在这个房间里挤满了交通专家谈论交通实在有些令人生畏。我的领域是土地利用，我们想认为它的用途和位置与运输有很大关系。我将研究一些趋势，这些趋势已经确定了开发运输解决方案的模式。增长何去何从？为什么？那是什么增长？然后，我们将研究一些新趋势。我完全同意人口统计是命运。我想更深入地了解这一点，不仅要关注未来5到10年的短期趋势，而且要了解一些我们知道的有关人们如何在生活中不同点做出决定的方式，以及这些因素如何影响到哪里？他们会根据产品和位置选择进行选择。我将快速了解其中一些趋势，因为我怀疑您花了很多时间思考它们。在过去的十年中，我们看到郊区相对城市的增长更快。考虑我们现在的开发模式以及将来的开发模式类型时，重要的一件事是“驱动程序”和“跟随者”的使用。用“驾驶员”一词，并不是说汽车，而是住房，它着眼于住房的去向，以及它如何导致零售工作以及随后的办公工作。如果住房有一些变动或机会转移，那些零售和办公室工作将会怎样？

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