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A Forecasting Method on the Proliferation of Technology Innovation in the Perspective of Risk Control

机译:风险控制视角下的技术创新扩散预测方法

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For the high risk on technology innovation, it is imperative to predict the trend of technology development in this contemporary innovative era. This paper sets the proliferation of technology innovation as an object, applies the method of Monte Carlo, S Curve and Regression Analysis to study the relative and absolute rate of technology proliferation. The research shows an excellent result -a tiny relative error -in the forecasting of technology proliferation rate. Based on the forecasting and combining with its practical meaning, the dividing points of every stage on the proliferation of technology innovation are revealed. The strategies to achieve profits and minimize loss in every stage are made at last.
机译:对于技术创新的高风险,当务之急是要预测当今创新时代的技术发展趋势。本文以技术创新扩散为对象,运用蒙特卡洛,S曲线和回归分析方法研究技术扩散的相对和绝对速度。该研究在预测技术扩散速度方面显示出极好的结果-相对误差很小。在预测的基础上,结合其实际意义,揭示了技术创新扩散各个阶段的分工。最后制定了在每个阶段实现利润并最大程度减少损失的策略。

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