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首页> 外文会议>Flood Forecasting and Water Resources Assessment for IAHS(International Association of Hydrological Sciences)-PUB >Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes and Water Resources in Headwater Area of the Yellow River
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Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes and Water Resources in Headwater Area of the Yellow River

机译：气候变化对黄河源区水文过程和水资源的影响

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The headwater area upstream the Tang-Nai-Hai hydrological gauge station is one of the main runoff generation areas of the Yellow River Basin. Climate change is one of the main reasons of water resources decrease and ecological deterioration in the headwater area in recent years, and analyzing the future further change impact is important for water resources planning and management in the basin. In this article, we simulated the changes of both annual runoffs and monthly ones in headstream of the Yellow River under air temperature and precipitation change by using the WEP model. WEP, a physically-based distributed model, can reflect the impact of air temperature change on water resources through evapotranspiration change, snow storage and melting change and infiltration capability change in the frozen soil layer. The model was validated using the observed daily discharge data from 1956 to 2000 at the Tang-Nai-Hai station. After validating the model, we assumed 8 different schemes with temperature change by ± 1℃, ± 2℃ and precipitation change by ± 10%, ± 20% on the basis of historical observed meteorological data. The results indicates that air temperature change has different impacts on annual runoffs and monthly ones. The temperature increase causes annual runoff decrease, with an obvious decrease of monthly runoff from May to October because of the evapotranspiration increase and an increase from November to next April because of the snow storage and melting and frozen soil infiltration capability changes. The maximum increase is 63.7% in March 1989 when assuming the air temperature increase of 2℃. Precipitation increase or decrease causes runoff increase or decrease at different extents, and the runoff has a larger change rate than precipitation does.
机译：唐-奈-海水文测量站上游的源头地区是黄河流域的主要径流产生区之一。气候变化是近年来源头地区水资源减少和生态恶化的主要原因之一，分析未来的进一步变化影响对流域水资源规划和管理具有重要意义。本文利用WEP模型模拟了黄河源流在气温和降水量变化下年径流量和月径流量的变化。 WEP是一种基于物理的分布式模型，可以通过蒸散量变化，积雪和融化变化以及冻土层的入渗能力变化来反映气温变化对水资源的影响。使用在Tang-Nai-Hai站观察到的1956年至2000年的每日流量数据对模型进行了验证。在对模型进行验证之后，我们根据历史观测气象数据，假设了8种不同的方案，温度变化分别为±1℃，±2℃和降水变化为±10％，±20％。结果表明，气温变化对年径流量和月径流量的影响不同。温度的升高导致年度径流减少，由于蒸散量的增加，5月至10月的月径流量明显减少，而由于积雪，融雪和冻土的渗透能力变化，从11月至次年的4月，径流量明显减少。假设气温上升2℃，1989年3月的最高涨幅为63.7％。降水的增加或减少导致径流在不同程度上增加或减少，并且径流的变化率大于降水量。

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