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首页> 外文会议>International Symposium on Flood Forecasting and Water Resources Assessment for IAHS-PUB >Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes and Water Resources in Headwater Area of the Yellow River
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Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes and Water Resources in Headwater Area of the Yellow River

机译：气候变化对黄河下水域水文过程和水资源的影响

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The headwater area upstream the Tang-Nai-Hai hydrological gauge station is one of the main runoff generation areas of the Yellow River Basin. Climate change is one of the main reasons of water resources decrease and ecological deterioration in the headwater area in recent years, and analyzing the future further change impact is important for water resources planning and management in the basin. In this article, we simulated the changes of both annual runoffs and monthly ones in headstream of the Yellow River under air temperature and precipitation change by using the WEP model. WEP, a physically-based distributed model, can reflect the impact of air temperature change on water resources through evapotranspiration change, snow storage and melting change and infiltration capability change in the frozen soil layer. The model was validated using the observed daily discharge data from 1956 to 2000 at the Tang-Nai-Hai station. After validating the model, we assumed 8 different schemes with temperature change by ± 1°C, ± 2°C and precipitation change by ± 10%, ± 20% on the basis of historical observed meteorological data. The results indicates that air temperature change has different impacts on annual runoffs and monthly ones. The temperature increase causes annual runoff decrease, with an obvious decrease of monthly runoff from May to October because of the evapotranspiration increase and an increase from November to next April because of the snow storage and melting and frozen soil infiltration capability changes. The maximum increase is 63.7% in March 1989 when assuming the air temperature increase of 2°C. Precipitation increase or decrease causes runoff increase or decrease at different extents, and the runoff has a larger change rate than precipitation does.
机译：上游的唐奈海水文仪表站是黄河流域的主要径流发电区域之一。气候变化是近年来水资源减少和生态变化的主要原因之一，并分析了未来进一步的变化影响对于盆地的水资源规划和管理是重要的。在本文中，通过使用WEP模型，我们在空气温度和降水变化下模拟了黄河头部的年径流和月度的变化。基于物理的分布式模型WEP可以反映通过蒸发蒸腾变化，雪储存和融化变化和冻土层的渗透性变化和渗透能力变化的空气温度变化对水资源的影响。在Tang-Nai-Hai站，使用1956年至2000年观测的每日放电数据进行了验证。在验证模型后，在历史观察到的气象数据的基础上，我们假定温度±1°C，±2°C，±20％，±20％的±10％不同的方案。结果表明，空气温度变化对年径流和月度的影响不同。温度增加导致年径流减少，从5月到10月的月度径流下降明显下降，因为蒸散量增加，从11月到明年四月的增加，因为雪储存和融化和冷冻土壤渗透能力发生变化。 3月1989年3月最大增加是在假设空气温度增加2°C时为63.7％。降水量增加或减少导致径流增加或减少不同的范围，并且径流比降水量更大。

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