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Statistical Models of Typhoon Intensity and Tracking for Extreme Wind Speed Estimation

机译：台风强度和极风估计的跟踪统计模型

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Determination of design wind speed or wind hazard analysis for structure in general requiresrnstatistically modeled typhoon information consisting of models genesis, intensity, track and windrnfield. However, the current typhoon intensity and track models used to simulate the typhoonsrnaround Korean peninsula statistically have difficulties in simulating randomness and dynamics ofrntyphoons in the study region. In this paper, more realistic typhoon intensity model and track modelrnfor the typhoons around Korean peninsula are proposed. First, defining the central pressure depthrn(CPD), the deficit between the central and periphery pressures as the representative of a typhoonrnintensity, the intensity model includes SST (Sea Surface Temperature), relative change of SST,rnOOR (Oceanic Occupation Ratio), relative change of OOR, latitude and traveling time. Anrnempirical typhoon intensity model is developed by multi-variate regression. The correlationrncoefficients of CPDs from the present model and the RSMC best tracks for the strong and weakrntyphoons show 0.93 and 0.76 respectively, which shows a good agreement with the historicrnintensity. Secondly, a tracking model to describe dynamical typhoon tracks for the typhoons aroundrnKorean peninsula was developed. The displacements of typhoon center is determined by the meanrndisplacement and the anomaly from the autoregression (1) model, which are estimated from thernhistorical typhoon displacements collected on the circle with the radius of pre-assigned length scale.rnClassifying typhoon into the Southern Boundary (SB), the Eastern Boundary (EB) and the WesternrnBoundary (WB) typhoons according to which boundary a typhoon enters into the domain, thernspatial density correlation coefficients of the present results and the historical tracks for SB, EB,rnWB show 0.87, 0.6, and 0.5 respectively. The intensity and the tracking models proposed in thisrnpaper are able to reasonably simulate realistic synthetic typhoon in the point of statistical view.
机译：确定结构的设计风速或进行风灾危害分析通常需要统计建模的台风信息，包括台风成因，强度，轨道和风场。但是，目前用于模拟朝鲜半岛台风的台风强度和航迹模型在统计上难以模拟研究区域内台风的随机性和动态。本文提出了更现实的朝鲜半岛台风强度模型和台风轨道模型。首先，定义中心压力深度rn（CPD），中心压力和外围压力之间的赤字代表台风强度，强度模型包括SST（海面温度），SST的相对变化，rnOOR（海洋职业比），相对OOR，纬度和旅行时间的变化。通过多变量回归建立了经验性台风强度模型。当前模型和强台风和弱台风的RSMC最佳轨迹的CPDs相关系数分别为0.93和0.76，与历史强度具有很好的一致性。其次，建立了描述朝鲜半岛台风动态台风轨迹的跟踪模型。台风中心的位移由平均位移和自回归（1）模型的异常确定，该模型是根据以预先指定的长度标尺半径在圆上收集的历史台风位移估算的自回归（1）模型。rn将台风分类为南部边界（SB） ），东边界（EB）和西边界（WB）台风根据哪个边界进入该区域，当前结果的空间密度相关系数以及SB，EB，rnWB的历史轨迹分别为0.87、0.6和分别为0.5。本文提出的强度和跟踪模型能够从统计角度合理模拟现实的合成台风。

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