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Performance Prediction of Concrete Elements in Bridge Substructures using Integrated Deterioration Method

机译:综合劣化法预测桥梁下部结构中混凝土构件的性能

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The typical probabilistic deterioration model cannot guarantee a reliable long-term prediction forrnvarious situations of available condition data. To minimise this limitation, this paper presents anrnadvanced integrated method using state-/time-based model to build a reliable transition probabilityrnfor prediction long-term performance of bridge elements. A selection process is developed in thisrnmethod to automatically select a suitable prediction approach for a given situations of conditionrndata. Furthermore, a Backward Prediction Model (BPM) is employed to effectively prediction thernbridge performance when the inspection data are insufficient. In this study, a benchmark exampleconcreternelement in bridge substructures is selected to demonstrate that the BPM in conjunctionrnwith time-based model can improve the reliability of long-term prediction.
机译:典型的概率恶化模型不能保证对可用条件数据的各种情况进行可靠的长期预测。为了最大程度地减少这种局限性,本文提出了一种先进的综合方法,该方法使用基于状态/时间的模型来构建可靠的过渡概率,用于预测桥梁构件的长期性能。在该方法中开发了选择过程,以针对条件数据的给定情况自动选择合适的预测方法。此外,当检查数据不足时,采用后向预测模型(BPM)有效预测热桥性能。在本研究中,选择了桥梁子结构中的基准示例混凝土来证明BPM与基于时间的模型结合可以提高长期预测的可靠性。

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