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MORE APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILISTIC COST AND SCHEDULERISK ASSESSMENT TOLARGE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

机译：大型基础设施项目中概率成本和计划风险评估的更多应用

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摘要

Historically, engineers and planners worldwide have not adequately estimated the ultimaterncosts and schedules for infrastructure projects, with unidentified biases and problemsrnsometimes causing large budget and schedule overruns. Many government agencies nowrnrecognize these issues and require probabilistic risk assessment and risk management for largernprojects to better estimate and control cost and schedule. Others have attempted to addressrnthese problems, but many of these attempts have significant limitations (e.g., no direct linkrnbetween cost and schedule). This paper briefly summarizes the application of an innovativernand cost-effective approach for cost and schedule risk assessment and management to tworntransportation projects: a highway bridge replacement and a light-rail transit project. Thernapproach helps mitigate historical estimating and budgeting problems by: 1) quantifyingrnuncertainty in ultimate actual project cost and schedule within a probabilistic, risk-based,rnintegrated cost and schedule model, in which the uncertainties in inputs are explicitly de-biasedrnand assessed (through elicitation of technical experts) and incorporated; 2) identifying andrnprioritizing critical cost and schedule risks and opportunities, as well as quantifying the costsrnand benefits of proposed mitigation strategies to address critical risks/opportunities; and 3)rnimproving communication and decision-making (including funding requirements).
机译：从历史上看，全球的工程师和计划人员没有充分估计基础设施项目的最终成本和进度表，不确定的偏差和问题有时会导致大量预算和进度表超支。现在，许多政府机构已经意识到了这些问题，并要求对大型项目进行概率风险评估和风险管理，以更好地估算和控制成本和进度。其他人已经尝试解决这些问题，但是这些尝试中的许多都有很大的局限性（例如，成本和进度之间没有直接联系）。本文简要总结了一种创新且具有成本效益的方法，用于成本和进度风险评估和管理在两个交通项目中的应用：公路桥梁更换和轻轨交通项目。该方法通过以下方法帮助减轻历史估算和预算问题：1）在概率，基于风险，成本和进度的概率模型中量化最终实际项目成本和进度的不确定性，在该模型中，明确消除了投入的不确定性并进行了评估（通过确定技术专家）并注册成立； 2）确定关键成本并安排其优先级，并安排风险和机遇，并对拟议的缓解策略应对关键风险/机遇的成本和收益进行量化； 3）改善沟通和决策（包括资金需求）。

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