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Option-game Analysis of Real Estate Investment Decision

机译：房地产投资决策的期权博弈分析

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The option-game theory is introduced to solve the potential problems in traditional theory about real estate investment decision in this paper. Real-option theory takes potential value of a project into full account with option pricing approach, can solve such problems as uncertainty, irreversibility and flexibilities of real estate investment;meanwhile game theory suits for resolving interaction effects and seeking for equilibrium strategies among competitive firms. Firstly, static option-game analysis is performed for multiple competitors firms in real estate market of complete competition, the hitting time function and the optimal investment time corresponding to the optimal strategy are obtained through concrete theoretical deduction and analysis. Also, dynamic option-game analysis is performed for leader and follower in uncompetitive real estate market, their value functions are presented and the optimal equilibrium development quantities are given based on Stackeberge equilibrium model. Furthermore, a simple example and detailed analyses are given to deepen the understanding of the above models. Finally, further discussions of analysis results are made and some meaning conclusions are presented.
机译：为了解决传统房地产投资决策理论中的潜在问题，引入了期权博弈理论。实物期权理论通过期权定价的方法充分考虑了项目的潜在价值，可以解决房地产投资的不确定性，不可逆性和灵活性等问题；同时博弈论适合解决竞争效应，寻求竞争企业之间的均衡策略。首先，对完全竞争的房地产市场中的多个竞争者企业进行静态期权博弈分析，通过具体的理论推导和分析，得出了命中时间函数和与最优策略相对应的最优投资时间。在不竞争的房地产市场中，对领导者和跟随者进行了动态期权博弈分析，给出了它们的价值函数，并根据Stackeberge均衡模型给出了最优均衡发展量。此外，给出了一个简单的示例和详细的分析，以加深对上述模型的理解。最后，对分析结果进行了进一步讨论，并提出了一些有意义的结论。

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