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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Modelling, Monitoring and Management of Air Pollution; 200605; New forest(GB) >National emissions ceilings for 2005 and 2010 and their impact on Portuguese air quality
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National emissions ceilings for 2005 and 2010 and their impact on Portuguese air quality

机译：2005年和2010年国家排放上限及其对葡萄牙空气质量的影响

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摘要

Accordingly to the EU Directive 2001/81/EC, all the Member States should develop and implement a national programme to reduce the emissions of acidifying gases, in order to reach, before 2010, the National Emission Ceilings (NEC). In this context, Portugal has developed technical studies aiming to set up a reference scenario until 2010 and to evaluate the compliance of the emission ceilings established to this target year. In addition to this reference scenario, high and low emission reduction scenarios were also defined. Notwithstanding 2010 scenarios, the same procedure was applied to 2005 and two reduction scenarios, high and low, were considered. This works intends to evaluate the impacts of these national emission reduction scenarios on the air quality in Portugal, verifying the fulfilment of the air quality thresholds for 2005 and 2010. A numerical modelling system was applied over Portugal to these hypothetical situations and results were compared to those from an application to a baseline year - 2001. The selected numerical system is the 3D chemistry-transport model CHIMERE, which uses data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast as meteorological input. Assuming the 2001 simulated meteorological conditions, the results point towards a reasonable improvement of the air quality over Portugal. It forecasted a significant decrease of ozone levels, especially in the downwind urban areas of Lisbon and Porto. These results strengthen the importance of including the NEC emission scenarios into the national strategy for air quality management.
机译：根据欧盟指令2001/81 / EC，所有成员国应制定并实施一项减少酸化气体排放的国家计划，以便在2010年之前达到国家排放上限（NEC）。在这种情况下，葡萄牙开展了技术研究，旨在建立一个到2010年的参考情景，并评估在该目标年建立的排放上限的遵守情况。除了此参考方案外，还定义了高减排量和低排放量的方案。尽管有2010年的情景，但对2005年采用了相同的程序，并考虑了两种减少情景，即高和低。这项工作旨在评估这些国家减排情景对葡萄牙空气质量的影响，验证是否满足2005年和2010年的空气质量阈值。在葡萄牙对这些假设情况应用了数值建模系统，并对结果进行了比较。从应用程序到基准年（2001年）的数据。所选的数字系统是3D化学迁移模型CHIMERE，该模型使用了来自欧洲中型天气预报中心的数据作为气象输入。假设2001年模拟气象条件，结果表明葡萄牙的空气质量得到了合理的改善。它预测臭氧水平将显着下降，尤其是在里斯本和波尔图的下风城市地区。这些结果加强了将NEC排放情景纳入国家空气质量管理战略的重要性。

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