Stochastic Prediction of Seismic Ground Motions Using Macro-Spatial Correlation Model

机译：基于宏观空间相关模型的地震地震动随机预测

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Estimating a macro-spatial correlation of seismic ground motions is very important for earthquake damage predictions, building portfolio analyses, etc. in which simultaneous damages in different locations have to be taken into consideration. In this study, the residual value between an observed and a ground motion predicted by an empirical mean attenuation equation is focused on. The residual value is now modelled assuming that it constitutes a homogeneous two-dimensional stochastic field in such a way that the joint probability density function (PDF) of seismic ground can be characterized by the spatial correlation model as well as by an empirical mean attenuation equation. Once it can be given in terms of the correlation model with the PDF, stochastic prediction of the ground motion at the locations unobserved can be effectively done with using the data observed at the near-by stations.

机译：估计地震地面运动的宏观空间相关性对于地震破坏的预测，建筑物组合分析等非常重要，在这种情况下，必须考虑到不同位置的同时破坏。在这项研究中，着重于通过经验平均衰减方程预测的地面运动与观测到的地面之间的残差值。现在假设残差值构成均匀的二维随机场，从而对残值进行建模，从而可以通过空间相关模型以及经验平均衰减方程来表征地震地的联合概率密度函数（PDF）。一旦可以用PDF的相关模型给出，就可以使用在附近站点观测到的数据有效地对未观测位置处的地面运动进行随机预测。

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来源
《International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management(PSAM7-ESREL'04) v.5; 20040614-20040618; Berlin; DE》|2004年|P.2926-2931|共6页
会议地点 Berlin(DE);Berlin(DE);Berlin(DE);Berlin(DE)
作者
Tsuyoshi Takada; Tetsuo Shimomura;
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作者单位

Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Kongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类安全系统学;
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Stochastic Prediction of Seismic Ground Motions Using Macro-Spatial Correlation Model

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