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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Water and Environment(WE-2003); 20031215-18; Bhopal(IN) >Analysis Of Flood Disaster Trends In Asia
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Analysis Of Flood Disaster Trends In Asia

机译：亚洲洪水灾害趋势分析

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摘要

Due to the flat terrain and proximity to large rivers, most of the Asian cities are vulnerable to flood disaster. High rate of urban development and population growth in the recent decades are contributing much to increase the vulnerability. It has been observed that more and more people have been affected by riverine floods in the recent years. The majority of recent disastrous floods have occurred in Asia. Is the flood frequency increasing in Asia? If it is increasing, how rapid is the increment? Why are floods increasing? These are some of the important issues that need to be addressed to understand the gravity of the problem of floods in the 21st century. This paper closely looks at the flood disaster trend in Asia in the past three decades and analyzes the major causes of the changing characteristics of flood disasters in Asian countries and their consequences. This paper analyzes the flood disaster records of Asia of the past 30 years to address these questions. The analyses show that an increasing trend of flood frequency can be observed in Asia. The rate of increment is relatively higher in the recent three years. The top 10 flood affected Asian countries show distinct increasing trend of flood disasters. Climate changes and changes of landuse show high correlation with the increasing trend of flood frequency in Asia. Cumulative effects of increased flood frequency and large rate of population growth and urban developments have increased the vulnerability of Asia against catastrophic flood disasters. As these trends are foreseen to continue in the next few decades in Asia in most of the countries, it is important to prepare long-term flood mitigation plans with proper consideration of these characteristics.
机译：由于地势平坦，靠近大河，大多数亚洲城市都容易遭受洪水灾害。近几十年来，城市发展和人口的高速增长大大增加了脆弱性。据观察，近年来，越来越多的人受到河流洪水的影响。最近发生的灾难性洪水大多数发生在亚洲。亚洲的洪水频率在增加吗？如果增加，增加的速度有多快？为什么洪水增加？这些是理解21世纪洪水问题的严重性需要解决的一些重要问题。本文仔细研究了亚洲过去三十年的洪灾趋势，并分析了亚洲国家洪灾特征变化的主要原因及其后果。本文分析了过去30年亚洲的洪灾记录，以解决这些问题。分析表明，在亚洲可以看到洪水频率增加的趋势。近三年来，增长率相对较高。受水灾影响排名前十的亚洲国家水灾呈明显上升趋势。气候变化和土地利用变化与亚洲洪水频率的增加趋势高度相关。洪水频率增加，人口增长率和城市发展速度加快的累积影响，增加了亚洲抵御灾难性洪灾的脆弱性。由于预计大多数国家在未来几十年内将继续出现这些趋势，因此，在适当考虑这些特征的前提下制定长期的防洪计划很重要。

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