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VSTOL Aircraft Market Analysis

机译：VSTOL飞机市场分析

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摘要

This paper describes the market for air vehicles that offer Very Short Take Off and Landing (VSTOL) capabilities, also known as VSTOL aircraft. A commercial VSTOL aircraft will only succeed if it provides profits to both manufacturers and airlines. Being able to operate out of shorter fields offers airlines greater flexibility and therefore provides a benefit to the airline. However, adding VSTOL performance also adds cost. Successful VSTOL aircraft designs must balance the added cost against the additional benefits VSTOL performance will provide.rnThe first problem in any new VSTOL design is determining what field length provides the maximum benefit relative to cost. In order to be able to determine this one needs to know not only what it will cost to design and build the new aircraft, but its value to the airlines, as reflected by the demand for it and the price they are willing to pay. Only then is it possible to design the airplane the market wants at a sustainable price and in sufficient quantities to optimize the manufacturer's return on investment.rnThis paper is a comprehensive parametric analysis of helicopters and airplanes that shows how much the market values short field performance by determining how much airline customers have been paying for it and how the market reacts to changes in its price. The analysis simultaneously considers over 230 currently produced models of fixed wing and rotary commercial aircraft, ranging in size from a Cessna 172 to an Airbus A380 and with balanced field lengths ranging from less than 150 to over 10,500 feet.rnThe data show that a single, statistically significant demand curve exists for all of these vehicles, with prices that range across several orders of magnitude. This curve consists of several segments or sub-markets including those for regional and rotary wing aircraft. Both of those markets offer vehicles over a wide range of prices. The analysis shows that VSTOL price is a function of the balanced field length provided by the vehicles within these market segments. Comparing demand and sustained price against cost reveals particular field lengths for which it will be possible to make a profit building VSTOL aircraft.rnBecause the sustained price for a VSTOL aircraft is a function of its field length performance, and the quantity of a model sold is a function of its price, it follows that it is possible to predict the profit potential for a given VSTOLrndesign in advance of its development. A thorough study of potential configurations therefore offers manufacturers the ability to design VSTOL aircraft that provide the maximum possible profit while fully satisfying the requirements of their airline customers.
机译：本文介绍了具有超短起降（VSTOL）功能的航空器市场，也称为VSTOL飞机。商用VSTOL飞机只有为制造商和航空公司提供利润，才能成功。能够在较短的范围内操作为航空公司提供了更大的灵活性，因此为航空公司带来了好处。但是，增加VSTOL性能也会增加成本。成功的VSTOL飞机设计必须在增加的成本与VSTOL的性能所带来的额外收益之间取得平衡。在任何新的VSTOL设计中，第一个问题是确定哪种视场长度提供相对于成本的最大收益。为了能够确定这一点，不仅需要知道设计和建造新飞机的成本，还需要知道它对航空公司的价值，这反映在对飞机的需求和他们愿意支付的价格上。只有这样，才有可能以可持续的价格设计出市场想要的飞机，并以足够的数量来优化制造商的投资回报。本文对直升机和飞机进行了全面的参数分析，显示了市场对短时性能的重视程度。确定有多少航空公司客户为此付费，以及市场如何对其价格变化做出反应。该分析同时考虑了目前生产的230多种固定翼和旋翼商用飞机模型，其尺寸从塞斯纳172到空客A380，平衡场长从150到10,500英尺不等。所有这些车辆都存在统计上显着的需求曲线，价格范围跨越几个数量级。该曲线包括几个细分市场或子市场，包括支线飞机和旋翼飞机的细分市场。这两个市场都提供价格范围广泛的车辆。分析表明，VSTOL价格是这些市场细分市场中车辆提供的平衡场长的函数。将需求和持续价格与成本进行比较，可以发现制造VSTOL飞机可以获利的特定领域长度。因为VSTOL飞机的持续价格是其领域长度性能的函数，并且售出的模型数量根据其价格的函数，可以在开发之前预测给定VSTOLrndesign的潜在利润。因此，对潜在配置的透彻研究为制造商提供了设计VSTOL飞机的能力，该飞机在最大程度地实现利润的同时完全满足其航空公司客户的需求。

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  • 来源
  • 会议地点 London(GB);London(GB)
  • 作者

    Douglas K. Howarth;

  • 作者单位

    Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company 1011 Lockheed Way, Building 660 Palmdale, CA 93599 661-572-2853 doug.howarth@lmco.com;

  • 会议组织
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 V212.131;
  • 关键词

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