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首页> 外文会议>International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference(ISEC-03); 20050920-23; Shunan(JP) >Risk based life cycle cost analysis model for comparable life cycle project delivery decision taking
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Risk based life cycle cost analysis model for comparable life cycle project delivery decision taking

机译：基于风险的生命周期成本分析模型，用于可比较的生命周期项目交付决策

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摘要

Because of the great significance of the operational costs within the total costs during the whole life cycle of a building, and the decision for structural systems based hitherto almost exclusively on the investment costs, a user-friendly "life cycle cost analysis model" will be developed in the following article that helps investors and construction companies to compare different delivery alternatives. Building on the research paradigm of constructivism, a risk-based life cycle cost model will be developed to investigate the economic viability of different solutions. Cost structures for planning, construction and the operation of buildings will be demonstrated here that are based on research in relevant literature. Then the model will be developed in a constructive deductive manner, taking into account the progress over time of individual parameters on the basis of their probability distribution. Within the framework of a sensitivity analysis, the sensitivity of the sum of the life cycle costs to alterations in the key parameters will be investigated using a Monte Carlo simulation. The individual elements of the model will be combined so that the model delivers both the value for the expected costs and their probability distribution. The "risk based life cycle cost analysis model" thereby supports investors and constructors when establishing the optimum solution for a specific object.
机译：由于建筑物整个生命周期中运营成本在总成本中的重要性，以及迄今为止几乎完全基于投资成本的结构系统决策，因此将成为用户友好的“生命周期成本分析模型”在下一篇文章中开发，可帮助投资者和建筑公司比较不同的交付方式。基于建构主义的研究范式，将开发基于风险的生命周期成本模型，以研究不同解决方案的经济可行性。根据相关文献的研究，将在此展示建筑物的规划，建造和运营的成本结构。然后，将以建设性的演绎方式开发模型，同时考虑各个参数根据其概率分布随时间变化的情况。在敏感性分析的框架内，将使用蒙特卡洛模拟来研究生命周期成本之和对关键参数变更的敏感性。将合并模型的各个元素，以便该模型既提供预期成本的值，又提供其概率分布。因此，在为特定对象建立最佳解决方案时，“基于风险的生命周期成本分析模型”将为投资者和建设者提供支持。

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