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首页> 外文会议>International Symposium on Flood Defence vol.1; 20020910-13; Beijing(CN) >Natural disasters, human vulnerability, and global change: a framework for analysis
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Natural disasters, human vulnerability, and global change: a framework for analysis

机译：自然灾害，人类脆弱性和全球变化：分析框架

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摘要

The concept of human vulnerability against natural disasters is analyzed in a systematic framework. Starting with a general discussion of the factors that influence human vulnerability a framework is presented in which floods are seen as causative events that disrupt the workings of a society. The vulnerability is expressed through the risk against extreme events as a first approximation, but it is indicated that this definition is not sufficient to capture all elements of vulnerability. A disaster is defined as a condition where the vulnerability index exceeds a critical vulnerability index. Due to global change, the risk changes with time, and we find that creeping, or slow onset disasters, may lead to conditions where the vulnerability index is exceeded even if no extreme sudden onset event occurs, whereas under conditions of ordinary vulnerability below the threshold set by the critical vulnerability a disaster occurs only under conditions of rapid onset extreme events.
机译：在系统的框架内分析了人类抵御自然灾害的脆弱性的概念。从对影响人类脆弱性的因素的一般讨论开始，提出了一个框架，其中洪水被视为破坏社会运作的致病性事件。该漏洞是通过抵御极端事件的风险作为第一近似值来表示的，但表明该定义不足以捕获漏洞的所有要素。灾难定义为漏洞指数超过关键漏洞指数的情况。由于全球变化，风险会随着时间而变化，我们发现蠕变或缓慢的灾难可能导致即使没有发生极端突发事件也超过漏洞指数的情况，而在普通漏洞低于阈值的情况下由严重漏洞设置的灾难仅在快速发生的极端事件条件下发生。

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