Input = certain past, Output = probable future : from the conditioned probability concept to probabilistic prediction tools

机译：输入=一定的过去，输出=可能的未来：从条件概率概念到概率预测工具

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The paper presents the construction of a theoretical model, based on the concept of conditioned probability, for producing probabilistic predictions in predictive monitoring. The concept of conditioned probability has an enormous potential utility for real world problems, but in order to convert its potential utility into real utility, it needs to be embedded in a suitable theoretical model, and this target is reached by means of "model engineering". In the paper, model engineering consists in defining three conceptual levels. The first conceptual level is represented by a set of basic concepts and definitions. This first level is used like a platform on which the second conceptual level, represented by the definition of time-slices based causal network, is built. This second level is, in turn, a platform on which the third conceptual level, represented by the definition of probabilistic network, is built. The concept of conditioned probability is embedded in this last level. Moreover, it is in this last level that conditioned probability based reasoning takes place and concludes in defining a prediction algorithm that can be applied to real world problems in heterogeneous domains.

机译：本文提出了基于条件概率概念的理论模型的构建，用于在预测监视中产生概率预测。条件概率的概念对于现实世界中的问题具有巨大的潜在效用，但是为了将其潜在效用转化为实际效用，需要将其嵌入合适的理论模型中，并通过“模型工程”来达到此目标。。在本文中，模型工程包括定义三个概念级别。第一个概念级别由一组基本概念和定义表示。该第一层用作平台，在其上构建第二概念层，该第二概念层由基于时间片的因果网络的定义表示。该第二层又是一个平台，在该平台上构建了以概率网络的定义表示的第三概念层。条件概率的概念已嵌入到最后一个层次中。此外，正是在最后这一层中，才进行了基于条件概率的推理，并最终确定了可应用于异构域中实际问题的预测算法。

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来源
《Mathematical methods for information science and economics》|2012年|171-176|共6页
会议地点 Montreux(CH)
作者
SILVANO MUSSI;
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作者单位

Member of AICA - Associazione Italiana per l'lnformatica ed il Calcolo Automatico Piazza Rodolfo Morandi 2, 20121 Milano, Italy ITALY;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
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关键词
Computer applications; Predictive models; Predictive monitoring; Probabilistic predictions; Probabilistic network; Decision support systems;

机译：计算机应用；预测模型；预测性监测；概率预测；概率网络；决策支持系统;

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3. Causes, risks, and probabilities: probabilistic concepts of causation in chronic disease epidemiology. [J] . Parascandola M Preventive Medicine: An International Journal Devoted to Practice and Theory . 2011,第4a5期

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4. Input = certain past, Output = probable future: from the conditioned probability concept to probabilistic prediction tools [C] . SILVANO MUSSI WSEAS International Conference on Applied Mathematics . 2013

机译：输入=某些过去，输出=可能的未来：从条件概率概念到概率预测工具
5. Creating spatially explicit predictions of bird presences in Maine: Evaluating input data, model performance, and model output. [D] . Hepinstall, Jeffrey Ahrens. 2000

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6. Probability-based nonlinear modeling of neural dynamical systems with point-process inputs and outputs [O] . Roman Sandler, Dong Song, Robert E Hampson, 2014

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7. Figure 6: (A) Tree resulted the standard MP analysis of the 98-loci supermatrix of the Great Apes (Hominidae, Primates, Mammalia) constructed using the modified summary of Lehtonen et al. (2011) (see “Materials and Methods” for the details) and a posteriori rooted relatively Papio (length = 12,092, CI = 0.7877, RI = 0.5597); 34,022 characters are constant, and the number of the parsimony-informative characters is equal to 4,311. MP BS values are provided below branches. The only characters with non-ambiguous value of the outgroup (Papio) have been saved within concatenated alignment; (B) the average consensus tree of the score 0.00084 resulted the analysis of the Hennigian forest of the 5,507 trees derived from the binary representation of the 98-loci supermatrix of the Great Apes (Hominidae, Primates, Mammalia) (see “Materials and Methods” for the details); Papio is assumed to be the best all-plesiomorphic group. “Additional…” FORESTER’s output tree file (see “Materials and Methods” for the details) selected for future analyses; (C) the average consensus tree of the score 0.00090 resulted the analysis of the Hennigian forest of the 5,339 trees derived from the modified binary representation of the 98-loci supermatrix of the Great Apes (Hominidae, Primates, Mammalia) (see 6.I. and “Materials and Methods” for the details), but with all 168 trees, which contain the clade (Homo plus Pan) have been removed from the input forest. “Additional…” FORESTER’s output tree file (see “Materials and Methods”) selected for future analyses. [O] . -1

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8. The Production and Consumption of Non-Fuel Minerals to the Year 2030 Analyzed within an Input-Output Framework of the U.S. and World Economy (Techniques for Consistent Forecasting of Future Demand for Major Minerals Using an Input-Output Framework) [R] . Leontief, W. , Koo, J. , Nasar, S. , 1982

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Input = certain past, Output = probable future : from the conditioned probability concept to probabilistic prediction tools

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