Input = certain past, Output = probable future: from the conditioned probability concept to probabilistic prediction tools

机译：输入=某些过去，输出=可能的未来：从条件概率概念到概率预测工具

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The paper presents the construction of a theoretical model, based on the concept of conditioned probability, for producing probabilistic predictions in predictive monitoring. The concept of conditioned probability has an enormous potential utility for real world problems, but in order to convert its potential utility into real utility, it needs to be embedded in a suitable theoretical model, and this target is reached by means of "model engineering". In the paper, model engineering consists in defining three conceptual levels. The first conceptual level is represented by a set of basic concepts and definitions. This first level is used like a platform on which the second conceptual level, represented by the definition of time-slices based causal network, is built. This second level is, in turn, a platform on which the third conceptual level, represented by the definition of probabilistic network, is built. The concept of conditioned probability is embedded in this last level. Moreover, it is in this last level that conditioned probability based reasoning takes place and concludes in defining a prediction algorithm that can be applied to real world problems in heterogeneous domains.

机译：本文介绍了理论模型的构建，基于条件概率的概念，以产生预测监测中的概率预测。条件概率的概念对现实世界的问题具有巨大的潜在效用，但为了将其潜在的效用转换为实用工具，需要嵌入在合适的理论模型中，并且通过“模型工程”来达到该目标。。在本文中，模型工程包括定义三个概念层面。第一个概念级别由一组基本概念和定义表示。构建了这一第一级，它类似于由基于时间切片的因果网络定义所代表的第二概念级别的平台。建立了第二级，建立了由概率网络定义所代表的第三概念级别的平台。在最后一个级别中，条件概率的概念嵌入。此外，在这个最后的级别中，在定义可以应用于异构域中的真实世界问题的预测算法来进行和得出的基于概率的推理。

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《WSEAS International Conference on Applied Mathematics》|2013年||共6页
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SILVANO MUSSI;
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中图分类 G20-53;
关键词
Computer applications; Predictive models; Predictive monitoring; Probabilistic predictions; Probabilistic network; Decision support systems;

机译：计算机应用;预测模型;预测监测;概率预测;概率网络;决策支持系统;

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4. Input = certain past, Output = probable future: from the conditioned probability concept to probabilistic prediction tools [C] . SILVANO MUSSI WSEAS International Conference on Applied Mathematics . 2013

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Input = certain past, Output = probable future: from the conditioned probability concept to probabilistic prediction tools

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