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Review of Air Toxics Modeling for the Mid-Atlantic Region

机译：中大西洋地区空中毒科学审查

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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released to the public the results of a modeling estimate of risk due to exposure to hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). EPA has compared modeled concentrations to cancer risk and chronic toxicity benchmarks in the Cumulative Exposure Project (CEP). Stated uses of the model-estimated concentrations include: identifying priority HAPs for further attention; estimating the relative contributions of broad categories of emission sources to HAP concentrations; characterizing potential public health implications of air toxics by comparing modeled concentrations to health benchmark concentrations; and characterizing the relationship between geographic distributions of modeled air toxic concentrations and demographic variables (i.e., environmental justice issues). Sonoma Technology, Inc. (STI) performed a technical review of the air toxics modeling conducted under the CEP and compared model-estimated concentrations with ambient concentrations in three Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA) areas to provide some "ground truth" to the modeled concentrations. This paper will discuss the uncertainties in the model, the model applicability at the census tract level, and the comparison of model estimates with ambient data. Given the disparity between the base year for the ambient data and the model estimates, these comparisons were intended to illustrate the types of analyses that should be performed when the model-estimates are available using the 1996 inventories. The comparison results also can be used as a general guideline to the types of uncertainties and potential problems in the modeling.
机译：美国环境保护署（EPA）向公众发布风险的模型估计结果由于暴露于有害空气污染物（HAPS）。 EPA已经相比建模浓度癌症风险，并在累积暴露项目（CEP）慢性毒性基准。模型估计浓度所陈述的用途包括：识别用于进一步注意优先权有害空气污染物;估计大类的发射源到HAP浓度的相对贡献;通过比较模拟浓度健康基准浓度表征空气有毒物质的潜在的公共健康问题;和表征建模空气毒性浓度和人口统计变量（即，环境正义问题）的地理分布之间的关系。索诺玛技术公司（STI）进行有毒气体的技术审查建模三个中大西洋地区空气管理协会CEP下进行，并与空气中的含量模型估计的浓度（马拉马）领域提供一些“地面实况”在模拟的浓度。本文将在模型中，在人口普查级别车型的适用性，和模型估计与环境数据进行比较讨论的不确定性。鉴于环境数据和模型估计基年之间的差距，这些比较的目的是要说明的类型应该进行分析时，模型的预测可使用1996年的库存。比较结果也可作为一般的指南发送到类型的不确定性，并在造型上可能出现的问题的。

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