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Intuitions about Ordered Beliefs Leading to Probabilistic Models

机译:关于导致概率模型的有序信念的直觉

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The general use of subjective probabilities to model belief has been justified using many axiomatic schemes. For example, 'consistent betting behavior' arguments are well-known. To those not already convinced of the unique fitness and generality of probability models, such justifications are often unconvincing. The present paper explores another rationale for probability models. 'Qualitative probability,' which is known to provide stringent constraints on belief representation schemes, is derived from five simple assumptions about relationships among beliefs. While counterparts of familiar rationality concepts such as transitivity, dominance, and consistency are used, the betting context is avoided. The gap between qualitative probability and probability proper can be bridged by any of several additional assumptions. The discussion here relies on results common in the recent AI literature, introducing a sixth simple assumption. The narrative emphasizes models based on unique complete orderings, but the rationale extends easily to motivate set-valued representations of partial orderings as well.
机译:使用许多公理式的方案证明了主观概率对信念建模的一般用途是合理的。例如,“一致的投注行为”参数是众所周知的。对于那些尚未确信概率模型具有独特的适用性和普遍性的人们,这样的辩解往往令人信服。本文探讨了概率模型的另一种原理。众所周知,“定性概率”对信念表示方案提供了严格的约束条件,它是根据有关信念之间关系的五个简单假设得出的。虽然使用了熟悉的合理性概念(例如,传递性,支配性和一致性)的对应物,但避免了下注上下文。定性概率与适当概率之间的差距可以通过其他几个假设中的任何一个来弥合。这里的讨论依赖于最近的AI文献中常见的结果,引入了第六个简单假设。叙述强调基于唯一完整顺序的模型,但是其原理也很容易扩展以激发部分顺序的集合值表示。

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