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Importance sampling for dynamical systems

机译:动力系统的重要性抽样

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摘要

In this paper the use of the Girsanov transformaiton as a means of obtaining an importance sampling procedures for estiamting first-passage failure probabilities of some linear dynamical systems is investigated. It has already been verified that the method seems to be acurate and very efficient for certain dynamical systems, but its general applicability, within its intrinsic limitations, is still an unsettled problem. It will be demonstrated that while the importance sampling procedure works reasonably well also for hte dynamic systems studied in this paper, it may in some cases lead to a certain bias in the estimation of th failure probability. To comply with the use of the Girsanov transformation, the discussion is limited to reliability problems that can be formulated in terms of the dynamic response obtained from the solution of an Ito stochastic differnetial equation. Specifically, it is assumed that the reliability problem can be formulated as a first-passage time failure occurring when the response process exits a safe domain.
机译:本文研究了利用吉尔萨诺夫变换作为获得重要抽样程序的方法,以估计一些线性动力学系统的初次通过故障概率。已经证实该方法对于某些动力学系统似乎是准确的并且非常有效,但是在其固有的局限性内,其普遍的适用性仍然是一个未解决的问题。可以证明,尽管重要性采样程序对于本文研究的动态系统也相当有效,但在某些情况下可能会导致故障概率的估计产生一定的偏差。为了符合Girsanov变换的使用,讨论仅限于可以根据从伊藤随机微分方程的解获得的动态响应来表述的可靠性问题。具体来说,假设可靠性问题可以表述为响应过程退出安全域时发生的首次通过时间故障。

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