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Variance reduction in Monte Carlo simulation of dynamic systems

机译:动态系统的蒙特卡洛模拟中的方差减少

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A variance reduction technique for Monte Carlo simulation of randomly exicted non-linear dynamic systems is presented. Modeling the structural response by a system of Ito stochastic differnetial equations, the drift term is changed according to a minimization criterion for the variance ofthe estimator of the system response by applying the measurement transformaiton method (Girsanov transformation). Solving the coresponding Bellman equation, it can be shown that--at least theoretically--unbiased zero-variance estiamtors of functionals of the system response can be constructed. Applying approximate solution techniques as e.g. equivalent linearization or cumulant-neglect closure, sub-optimal estimators can be established. The efficiency of the mehtod is demonstrated by calcualting the trasient response characteristics of oscillators under external white noise excitation with conservative hardening and hysteretic softening restoring forces.
机译:提出了一种用于随机激励的非线性动力学系统的蒙特卡罗模拟的方差减少技术。通过伊藤随机微分方程系统对结构响应进行建模,通过采用测量变换方法(Girsanov变换),根据系统响应估计量方差的最小化准则来更改漂移项。求解对应的Bellman方程,可以证明,至少在理论上,可以构造系统响应函数的零偏估计量。应用近似解决方案技术,例如等效线性化或累积量忽略闭包,可以建立次优估计量。通过计算在外部白噪声激励下具有保守硬化和滞后软化恢复力的振荡器的瞬态响应特性,证明了方法的效率。

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