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首页> 外文会议>International conference of the System Dynamics Society >Evaluating Economic Feasibility of Environmentally Sustainable Scenarios by a Backcasting Approach with ESCOT (Economic assessment of Sustainability poliCies Of Transport)
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Evaluating Economic Feasibility of Environmentally Sustainable Scenarios by a Backcasting Approach with ESCOT (Economic assessment of Sustainability poliCies Of Transport)

机译：通过使用ESCOT的后推方法评估环境可持续情景的经济可行性（交通可持续性政策的经济评估）

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The aim of the System Dynamics Model ESCOT is to describe a path towards a sustainabletransport system in Germany and to assess its economic impacts. ESCOT was developedwithin the environmentally s ustainable transport (EST) project of the OECD that wasdesigned to consider the ecological and technical aspects of a transition towards sustainabletransportation. ESCOT comprises five models: the macroeconomic, the transport, theregional economic, the environmental and the policy model.The economic assessment for environmentally sustainable scenarios show that the departurefrom car and road freight oriented transport policy is far from leading to an economicbreakdown. With an expansion of the time period for the transition we derived even moreencouraging results.For the economic assessment it is important that ESCOT considers not only first roundeffects but also secondary effects. This ability makes ESCOT to a powerful instrument forthe assessment of such large ecological changes.
机译：ESCOT系统动力学模型的目的是描述通往可持续发展的道路 运输系统并评估其经济影响。 ESCOT被开发 在OECD的环境可持续发展运输（EST）项目中 旨在考虑向可持续发展过渡的生态和技术方面 运输。 ESCOT包含五个模型：宏观经济，运输，经济 区域经济，环境和政策模型。 对环境可持续情景的经济评估表明，这种偏离 从汽车和公路货运导向的运输政策远远没有导致经济 分解。随着过渡时间的延长，我们得到了更多 令人鼓舞的结果。 对于经济评估，重要的是，ESCOT不仅要考虑第一轮 效果，还有次要效果。这种能力使ESCOT成为 对如此巨大的生态变化的评估。

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