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Evaluating Economic Feasibility and Technical Progress of Environmentally Sustainable Transport Scenarios by a Backcasting Approach with ESCOT

机译：使用ESCOT的后推法评估环境可持续交通情景的经济可行性和技术进步

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摘要

The aim of the System Dynamics Model for Economic Assessment of Sustainability Policies of Transport (ESCOT) is to describe a path towards a sustainable transport system in Germany and to assess its economic impacts. ESCOT was developed within the environmentally sustainable transport (EST) project of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) that was designed to set up the ecological and technical framework of a transition towards sustainable transportation. ESCOT comprises five models: macroeconomic, transport, regional economic, environmental and policy. The economic assessment for environmentally sustainable scenarios shows that the departure from car- and road freight-oriented transport policy is far from leading to an economic breakdown. By expanding the period for the transition, even more encouraging economic results were derived. For the economic assessment, it is important that ESCOT considers not only first round effects, but also secondary effects. This ability makes ESCOT a powerful instrument for the assessment of such large system transitions.
机译：运输可持续性政策经济评估的系统动力学模型（ESCOT）的目的是描述通往德国可持续运输系统的道路，并评估其经济影响。 ESCOT是在经济合作与发展组织（OECD）的环境可持续运输（EST）项目中开发的，该项目旨在建立向可持续运输过渡的生态和技术框架。 ESCOT包括五个模型：宏观经济，运输，区域经济，环境和政策。对环境可持续情景的经济评估表明，偏离以汽车和公路货运为导向的运输政策远远没有导致经济崩溃。通过延长过渡期，获得了更加令人鼓舞的经济成果。对于经济评估，重要的是，ESCOT不仅要考虑第一轮效应，还要考虑其次要效应。 ESCOT的这种功能使之成为评估此类大型系统过渡的有力工具。

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