class='kwd-title'>Method name: Backcasting appro'/> Backcasting approach with multi-scenario simulation for assessing effects of land use policy using GeoSOS-FLUS software
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Backcasting approach with multi-scenario simulation for assessing effects of land use policy using GeoSOS-FLUS software

机译：使用GeoSOS-FLUS软件通过多场景模拟的后推方法评估土地使用政策的效果

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class="kwd-title">Method name: Backcasting approach with multi-scenario simulation (BAMSS) class="kwd-title">Keywords: Cellular Automata model, Conversion cost matrix, Parameter translation, Land use simulation, Policy effectiveness class="head no_bottom_margin" id="abs0010title">AbstractThe method presented is helpful for assessing effects of land use policy and unfolding the action mechanism and implementation effect of policies on land use changes. The backcasting method is based on the re-simulation of the historical real changes of land use. By observing the error between the real and simulated states, adjust the parameters for many times, and a variety of land use scenarios are obtained, and the scenario with the minimum and acceptable error is selected to assess the effects of land use policy represented by its parameters. The method is structured in four sequential stages, including expressing the policy action mechanism as the parameter combinations to control land use changes, and then translating the parameter combination that can reflect the effect of land use policies into the policy effectiveness. This process is realized by ArcGIS and GeoSOS-FLUS software developed based on Cellular Automata (CA) model. The method was successfully tested in the peri-urban region near Shanghai metropolitan area. The raw material is Land-Use/Cover (LULC) data of study area in 2000 and 2015. This method assessed the effects of land use policies during fifteen years, and analyzed the mechanism of effective policies, as well as the types and reasons of failure policies. This presented method is useful in land governance and the formulation and implementation of land use policy. class="first-line-outdent" id="lis0005">
  • • This article developed a backcasting approach to evaluate the effectiveness of land use policies on land use changes in a certain period of time.
  • • The policy action mechanism was transformed into controllable, visible, and adjustable parameter combinations.
  • • The method built an analytical framework for the assessment of land use policy effectiveness in any regions.
    • 机译：<！-fig ft0-> <！-fig @ position =“ anchor” mode =文章f4-> <！-fig mode =“ anchred” f5-> <！-fig / graphic | fig / alternatives / graphic mode =“ anchored” m1-> class =“ kwd-title”>方法名称：采用多场景模拟（BAMSS）的后退方法 class =“ kwd-title”>关键字：元胞自动机模型，转化成本矩阵，参数转换，土地利用模拟，政策有效性 class =“ head no_bottom_margin” id =“ abs0010title”>摘要提出的方法有助于评估效果土地利用政策的变化，并阐明政策对土地利用变化的作用机制和实施效果。回溯方法是基于对土地利用的历史真实变化的重新模拟。通过观察真实状态与模拟状态之间的误差，多次调整参数，得到各种土地利用情景，选择误差最小且可接受的情景，以评估其代表的土地利用政策的效果。参数。该方法分为四个阶段，包括将政策行动机制表达为控制土地利用变化的参数组合，然后将反映土地利用政策效果的参数组合转化为政策有效性。该过程由基于Cellular Automata（CA）模型开发的ArcGIS和GeoSOS-FLUS软件实现。该方法已在上海大都市附近的近郊地区成功进行了测试。原始数据是研究区域2000年和2015年的土地使用/覆盖（LULC）数据。该方法评估了15年间土地使用政策的效果，分析了有效政策的机制以及产生该政策的类型和原因。失败政策。此提出的方法可用于土地治理以及土地使用政策的制定和实施。 class =“ first-line-outdent” id =“ lis0005”> <！-list-behavior = simple prefix-word = mark- type = none max-label-size = 9->
  • •本文开发了一种回溯方法，用于评估特定时期内土地利用政策对土地利用变化的有效性。
  • •政策行动机制已转换为可控制的，可见的和可调的参数组合。
  • •该方法建立了土地评估的分析框架在任何地区使用政策效力。

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