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Prediction Study of Guarantee Behavior of Listed Companies of Construction and Real Estate Based on Logit Methodology

机译：基于Logit方法的建筑与房地产上市公司担保行为预测研究

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摘要

The paper selected 62 listed companies of construction and real estate as sample for estimation in China by 2004,and used guarantee behavior implemented of listed companies as target sample.By the use of Logit methodology the paper established a predicting model of guarantee behavior.The correct rate was percent 71 by the examination of listed companies of construction and real estate once more.At the same time,the paper used the model to have a prediction for listed companies of construction and real estate in 2005,and the correct rate reached percent 72.6.The result showed that the predicting ability of this model for target companies was better.
机译：本文选择了2004年我国62家建筑业和房地产业上市公司作为评估样本，并以实施上市公司的担保行为为目标样本。通过Logit方法，建立了担保行为的预测模型。再次通过建筑和房地产业上市公司的调查，该比率为71％。同时，该模型使用该模型对2005年建筑和房地产业上市公司进行了预测，正确率达到了72.6％。结果表明，该模型对目标公司的预测能力较好。

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