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Method for Risk Analysis of Gas Explosion Based on Bayesian Networks

机译:贝叶斯网络的瓦斯爆炸风险分析方法

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For preventing and controlling gas explosion accident in coal mines effectively, based on the basic principles of Bayesian networks and characteristics of gas explosion, studied the method for risk analysis of gas explosion using Bayesian networks. Proposed the method to build Bayesian networks for risk analysis of gas explosion, and discussed the method of transforming fault tree logical structure into Bayesian networks, then used Bayesian network to express the causal relationships among the events of causing accident, determined probability of each basic event by Delphi method, applied the Bayesian networks probabilistic reasoning to obtain the probability of accident, and the probability importance, structural importance, critical importance and the posterior probability of each basic event by calculating the conditional probabilities. Use case study to illustrate the process of applying this method, the results show that it is an applicable and feasible method with intuitive form and efficient calculation for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis of gas explosion in coal mines.
机译:为了有效预防和控制煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故,基于贝叶斯网络的基本原理和瓦斯爆炸的特点,研究了利用贝叶斯网络进行瓦斯爆炸风险分析的方法。提出了建立瓦斯爆炸危险性分析的贝叶斯网络的方法,并讨论了将故障树逻辑结构转换为贝叶斯网络的方法,然后用贝叶斯网络表达引起事故的事件之间的因果关系,确定了每个基本事件的概率通过德尔菲方法,运用贝叶斯网络概率推理方法,通过计算条件概率,得出事故概率,以及每个基本事件的概率重要性,结构重要性,临界重要性和后验概率。通过案例研究说明了该方法的应用过程,结果表明该方法适用于煤矿瓦斯爆炸定性和定量风险分析,具有直观直观,计算效率高的特点。

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