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首页> 外文会议>International symposium on progress in safety science and technology;2010 ISSST >Study on Integrated Risk Assessment for Fire Safety with Uncertainty Analysis
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Study on Integrated Risk Assessment for Fire Safety with Uncertainty Analysis

机译：不确定性分析的消防安全综合风险评估研究

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摘要

A risk assessment method is developed with uncertainty analysis for fire safety. Three aspects of fire risk were considered which are "the fire evolution", "human's vulnerability" and "management level". Each aspect is set as an uncertain variable and the uncertainty distribution is got with statistics. The integrated risk with three uncertain variables is modeled with vector method. Validating of the model is performed with three practical markets, which indicates that the risk assessment results fit well with practical situation. Besides, the method developed in this paper helps to find the key factors of risk.
机译：开发了一种具有不确定性分析的风险评估方法，以进行消防安全性评估。考虑了火灾风险的三个方面，即“火灾演变”，“人的脆弱性”和“管理水平”。将每个方面都设置为不确定变量，并通过统计获得不确定性分布。用向量法对具有三个不确定变量的综合风险进行建模。该模型的验证是在三个实际市场上进行的，这表明风险评估结果与实际情况非常吻合。此外，本文开发的方法有助于找到风险的关键因素。

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