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首页> 外文会议>IAC;International Astronautical Congress >POST-DISPOSAL ORBITAL EVOLUTION OF SATELLITES AND UPPER STAGES USED BY THE GPS AND GLONASS NAVIGATION CONSTELLATIONS: THE LONG-TERM IMPACT ON THE MEDIUM EARTH ORBIT ENVIRONMENT
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POST-DISPOSAL ORBITAL EVOLUTION OF SATELLITES AND UPPER STAGES USED BY THE GPS AND GLONASS NAVIGATION CONSTELLATIONS: THE LONG-TERM IMPACT ON THE MEDIUM EARTH ORBIT ENVIRONMENT

机译：GPS和GLONASS导航星座使用的卫星和高层的处置后轨道演变：对中地轨道环境的长期影响

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The long-term evolution and environmental impact in MEO of all the abandoned spacecraft and upper stagesassociated with the GPS and GLONASS navigation constellations were analyzed. The orbits of the disposed objects,as of 1 May 2011, were propagated for 200 years and snapshots of their evolving distribution were obtained, togetherwith an estimation of the changing collision probability with the spacecraft of the operational navigation systemsexisting or planned in MEO, i.e. GLONASS, GPS, Beidou and Galileo. The probability that the abandoned objectsconsidered will collide with the operational spacecraft of the navigation constellations is very low, even taking intoaccount the intrinsic eccentricity instability of the disposal orbits. Assuming the present or envisaged configurationof the constellations in MEO, the probability of collision, integrated over 200 years, would be < 1/300 with aGLONASS spacecraft, < 1/15,000 with a GPS or Beidou spacecraft, and < 1/250,000 with a Galileo spacecraft. Theworst disposal strategy consists in abandoning satellites and upper stages close to the altitude of the operationalconstellation (GLONASS), while a re-orbiting a few hundred km away (GPS) is able to guarantee an effective longtermdilution of the collision risk, irrespective of the eccentricity instability due to geopotential and luni-solarperturbations. The disposal strategies applied so far to the GPS satellites should be able to guarantee for at least a fewcenturies a sustainable MEO environment free of collisions among intact objects. Consequently, there would be noneed to adopt disposal schemes targeting also the optimal value of the eccentricity vector. However, it should bepointed out that the GPS disposal strategy was devised well in advance of the Beidou constellation announcement, somost of the abandoned satellites were re-orbited fairly close to the altitude of the new Chinese system. A new reorbitingapproach will be therefore needed in the future.
机译：所有废弃航天器和上层航天器在MEO中的长期演变和环境影响 分析了与GPS和GLONASS相关的导航星座。所处置物体的轨道， 截至2011年5月1日，已传播了200年，并获得了它们不断演变的分布快照 估计与操作导航系统的航天器发生变化的碰撞概率 在MEO中已经存在或计划中，例如GLONASS，GPS，北斗和Galileo。被遗弃的物体的概率 考虑到会与导航星座的作战航天器相撞非常低，即使考虑到 考虑到处置轨道固有的偏心不稳定性。假设当前或设想的配置 在MEO中，经过200年的积分，发生碰撞的概率将小于1/300， GLONASS航天器，使用GPS或北斗航天器的飞行器<1 / 15,000，使用Galileo航天器的飞行器<1 / 250,000。这 最糟糕的处置策略是放弃卫星，并在接近业务高度的位置上层 星座（GLONASS），而重新行进几百公里（GPS）则可以确保有效的长期 稀释碰撞风险，而不受由于地电势和单子太阳能引起的偏心不稳定性的影响 扰动。迄今为止应用于GPS卫星的处置策略应至少能够保证 几个世纪以来，一个可持续的MEO环境没有完整对象之间的碰撞。因此，不会有 需要采用也针对偏心向量的最佳值的处置方案。但是，应该 指出GPS处置策略是在北斗星座发布之前就精心设计的，因此 大部分被遗弃的卫星都在接近新中国系统高度的轨道上进行了重新轨道运行。新的重绕轨道 因此将来将需要这种方法。

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