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首页> 外文会议>International conference of the System Dynamics Society >A System Dynamics Approach in Water Resource Management and Government Subsidy Policy: A Case Study of Tajan Basin in Iran
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A System Dynamics Approach in Water Resource Management and Government Subsidy Policy: A Case Study of Tajan Basin in Iran

机译：水资源管理和政府补贴政策的系统动力学方法-以伊朗塔扬盆地为例

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After announcing the fuel rationing policy in 2008, government decided to eliminate subsidies in order to manage consumption of natural resources. Thus, a cashing subsidy policy has been applied since end of 2010. In first stage, different kinds of energy and resources like water were considered. Government's plan was to pay subsidies directly to consumers. In this paper, we focused on the consequences of removing water subsidy in Tajan, an area in the north of Iran. We modeled different ways of water supply and demand in Tajan by concepts of system dynamics. We tried to show the effects of cashing subsidies policy in municipal demand of water in Tajan and examined two kinds of implementing this policy. In the first strategy, water price is increased smoothly over modeling horizon which is.considered to be 24 months. While in the second one, price is increased suddenly in the first month, exactly similar to the way the government has done. We designed third strategy in which no subsidy elimination happens and prices increase according to inflation. A water surplus indicator was considered for comparing these strategies which was calculated by decreasing water supply from its demand. First strategy was shown to be best one.
机译：在2008年宣布燃油配给政策后，政府决定取消补贴，以管理自然资源的消耗。因此，自2010年底开始实施现金补贴政策。在第一阶段，考虑了各种能源和资源，例如水。政府的计划是直接向消费​​者支付补贴。在本文中，我们集中讨论了取消伊朗北部塔扬地区的水补贴的后果。我们通过系统动力学的概念对Tajan不同的供水和需求方式进行了建模。我们试图证明兑现补贴政策对塔扬市市政用水的影响，并研究了两种实施该政策的方法。在第一个策略中，水价在建模期间（被认为是24个月）内平稳地增加。在第二个月中，价格在第一个月突然上升，与政府的做法完全相似。我们设计了第三个策略，在该策略中不会取消补贴，并且价格会根据通货膨胀而上涨。为了比较这些策略，考虑了水盈余指标，这些指标是通过从需求中减少供水量来计算的。第一种策略被证明是最好的。

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