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Modeling Cases from Jared Diamond's 'Collapse'

机译：来自Jared Diamond的“崩溃”的建模案例

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Throughout history some societies, including the Maya, Anazi and Easter Island, have collapsed, while others facing similar challenges, such as New Guinea and Japan, have succeeded. The Maya and New Guinea cases were taken from Jared Diamond's study, "Collapse," to create a system dynamics model capable of producing both the collapse and success behavior. The endogenous pressures described by Diamond were used to develop the feedback story. Policy interventions undertaken in by the society in the model were controlling family size, increasing farming intensity, reducing resource usage and composting. In the initial attempt the society enacted these interventions in response the cues of food shortages, perceived environmental degradation and falling crop yields (an indicator of soil quality). However, using this set of cues the society was incapable of creating the success behavior mode, ruling out these cues as ones successful societies could have used. In the second scenario, the society used a target land fraction occupied as its main cue and the gap between needed food production per acre and actual food production per acre as the drive to increase composting. This cue set was able to produce success behavior, which establishes these cues as possible cues a successful society could have used.
机译：纵观整个历史，一些社会，包括玛雅人，阿纳齐人和复活节岛，都崩溃了，而其他面临类似挑战的社会，如新几内亚和日本，也取得了成功。 Maya和New Guinea案例来自Jared Diamond的研究“崩溃”，以创建能够同时产生崩溃和成功行为的系统动力学模型。 Diamond描述的内源性压力被用来发展反馈故事。社会在模型中采取的政策干预措施是控制家庭规模，增加耕种强度，减少资源使用和堆肥。在最初的尝试中，社会采取了这些干预措施，以应对粮食短缺，环境恶化和农作物减产（土壤质量的指标）的提示。但是，使用这组提示，社会无法创建成功行为模式，将这些提示排除为成功社会可以使用的提示。在第二种情况下，社会将目标土地占有率作为主要指标，并将每英亩所需粮食产量与每英亩实际粮食产量之间的差距作为增加堆肥的动力。这个提示集能够产生成功的行为，从而将这些提示确定为成功的社会本可以使用的提示。

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