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Common Cause Failure Analyses by Using the Decomposition Approach

机译:通过使用分解方法分析常见的原因失败

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The most common cause failure (CCF) analysis using the parametric models is performed based on a symmetry assumption that the probabilities of similar events involving similar components are the same. However, there are many cases where the CCF events show a tendency toward asymmetries. An example of these asymmetries is the case of differently operating components such as in a cooling water system. In this paper, we derived the general formulas for a modeling and parameter estimation of asymmetrical CCF events by using the decomposition approach. The total failures of a component including the CCFs were divided into their symmetry part and asymmetry part. Based on the assumption that the CCFs of each divided part were the symmetrical CCF events within them, the Alpha Factor method was employed for the derivation of formulas for modeling and parameter estimation for the asymmetrical CCFs. The derived formulas were applied to the CCF analysis of the three emergency diesel generators (EDGs) of Ulchin Unit 3. The historical CCF data used for the Alpha Factor estimation was the ICDE database. For a comparison, we quantified the EDG system unavailability of the 1 out of 3 success criterion by using the conservative method and the decomposition approach. For the case where the conservative method was used, the system unavailability was estimated as 1.801E-3. For that where the decomposition approach was used, it was estimated as 1.742E-3. The system unavailability estimated by the former method was increased by 3.4% in a comparison with the latter method.
机译:使用参数模型的最常见的原因失败(CCF)分析是基于对称假设来执行的,即涉及类似组件的类似事件的概率是相同的。然而,有许多情况下CCF事件显示出不对称的趋势。这些不对称的示例是不同操作部件的情况,例如在冷却水系统中。在本文中,我们通过使用分解方法来派生用于非对称CCF事件的建模和参数估计的通用公式。将包括CCF的组分的总失败分为对称部分和不对称部分。基于假设每个划分部分的CCF是它们内的对称CCF事件,使用α因子方法用于推导用于对非对称CCF的建模和参数估计的公式。衍生的公式被应用于Ulchin单元3的三个紧急柴油发电机(EDG)的CCF分析。用于alpha因子估计的历史CCF数据是ICDE数据库。为了进行比较,我们通过使用保守方法和分解方法量化了通过3个成功标准的IDG系统的不可用。对于使用保守方法的情况,系统不可用估计为1.801E-3。为使用了分解方法的情况下,估计为1.742E-3。与后一种方法相比,通过前一种方法估计的系统不可用性增加了3.4%。

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