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首页> 外文会议>European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition >ECONOMIC EVALUATION FOR STABLE ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM WITH HIGH RATIO OF PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEM - TOWARD MORE THAN 90 CO_2 EMISSIONS REDUCTION OF ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM IN JAPAN
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ECONOMIC EVALUATION FOR STABLE ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM WITH HIGH RATIO OF PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEM - TOWARD MORE THAN 90 CO_2 EMISSIONS REDUCTION OF ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM IN JAPAN

机译：光伏电力系统高比率稳定电力系统的经济评价 - 日本电力系统超过90％的CO_2排放

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摘要

This paper describes the future structure of Japanese electric power generation systems which can reduce life cycle CO_2 emissions by more than 90% based on 2010 and also provide economic electricity in 2050. It is important to clarify additional cost to establish a stable grid system with high ratio of variable renewable energy. Firstly, we calculate costs of present and future renewable energy systems using our quantitative methodology. To assess future renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics (PV), wind energy, geothermal, battery and so on, we designed manufacturing processes considering future technology progresses. For example, PV system cost will reach to 60 yen/W in 2030 according to this method. Secondly, we evaluate the cost of electric power systems using our multi-regional power generation model that takes into account the system stability. As a result of the cost minimized power generation model, it is possible to reduce CO_2 emissions to 50% based on 2010 without additional cost in 2030. To reduce CO_2 emissions by 90% in 2050, electricity cost will tremendously increase. In order to solve this problem, we should develop an economical and also low carbon PV system. Future economical and low carbon power systems are described using calculation results on new PV, battery, hydrogen, etc. which are key issues to be developed towards low cost and low carbon.
机译：本文介绍了日本电力发电系统的未来结构，基于2010年，可以将生命周期CO_2排放量减少90％以上，并在2050年提供经济电力。重要的是澄清额外成本，以建立高的稳定网格系统可变可再生能源的比例。首先，我们使用我们的定量方法计算现有和未来可再生能源系统的成本。为了评估未来的可再生能源，如光伏（PV），风能，地热，电池等，我们设计考虑未来技术的制造流程。例如，根据该方法，PV系统成本将在2030年达到60 yen / w。其次，我们使用我们的多区域发电模型来评估电力系统的成本，该模型考虑了系统稳定性。由于成本最小化发电模型，在2010年，可以在2030年的额外成本将CO_2排放量减少到50％。为2050年减少90％的CO_2排放量，电力成本将大幅增加。为了解决这个问题，我们应该开发经济且低碳光伏系统。使用新的PV，电池，氢等计算结果描述了未来的经济和低碳电力系统，这是朝向低成本和低碳的关键问题。

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