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首页> 外文会议>IFIP TC 5/SIG 5.1 conference on computer and computing technologies in agriculture;CCTA 2011 >The Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of the Solanum Fruit Fly, Bactrocera latifrons (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China
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The Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of the Solanum Fruit Fly, Bactrocera latifrons (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China

机译：中国茄果蝇Bactrocera latifrons（Diptera：Tephritidae）的当前和未来的潜在地理分布

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摘要

The solanum fruit fly, Bactrocera latifrons (Hendel), is a major pest throughout South and South East Asia, including very few parts of southern China, and has invaded Hawaii and recently the continent of Africa (Tanzania and Kenya). With the development of international trade in fruits and vegetables, B. latifrons has become a potential threat to Chinese agriculture. In this study, CLIMEX 3.0 and ArcGIS 9.3 were used to predict the current and future potential geographical distribution of B. latifrons in China. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes most parts of southern China (about 32.2% of all 748 meteorological stations), from 16.544°N to 32.442°N. Optimal climate conditions occur in most areas of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao. The factors limiting the boundary of its suitability range are mainly the cold and dry stress. Climate change scenario for the 2020s indicates that the future potential geographical distribution will be increased by 5% of the total land areas of China, and the northern distribution boundary will move from 32.442°N to 33.408°N. There are 34 non-suitable climate sites change into suitable, mainly in Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Shanxi, Gansu, Sichuan and Tibet, because of China is likely to become hotter and wetter in the 2020s. In order to prevent the introduction and spread of B. latifrons, the present plant quarantine and monitor measures should be enhanced more where are projected to be suitable areas under current as well as future climatic conditions. At the same time, we should strengthen education for the public's awareness of plant protection.
机译：茄果蝇Bactrocera latifrons（Hendel）是整个东南亚和东南亚（包括中国南部的极少数地区）的主要害虫，并已入侵夏威夷和最近的非洲大陆（坦桑尼亚和肯尼亚）。随着水果和蔬菜国际贸易的发展，菜豆已成为对中国农业的潜在威胁。在这项研究中，使用CLIMEX 3.0和ArcGIS 9.3预测了中国B. latifrons的当前和将来的潜在地理分布。在当前气候条件下，其潜在的分布范围包括华南大部分地区（从748.N到32.442°N，约占748个气象站的32.2％）。最佳气候条件发生在云南，贵州，四川，重庆，湖南，湖北，江西，浙江，福建，广东，广西，海南，台湾，香港和澳门的大多数地区。限制其适用范围边界的因素主要是冷应力和干应力。 2020年代的气候变化情景表明，未来的潜在地理分布将增加中国总土地面积的5％，而北部的分布边界将从32.442°N变为33.408°N。由于中国在2020年代可能变得更热和更潮湿，有34个不适合的气候点变为适合的气候点，主要分布在江苏，安徽，河南，山西，甘肃，四川和西藏。为了防止B. latifrons的传入和扩散，在目前和将来的气候条件下，在预计适合的地区，应进一步加强目前的植物检疫和监测措施。同时，我们应加强对公众植物保护意识的教育。

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