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首页> 外文会议>International Yellow River forum on ensuring water right of the river's demand and healthy river basin maintenance;Ministry of Water Resources;China Yellow River Foundation >Runoff Simulation in the Heiyukou Sub-basin of Weihe River Basin and its Responses to Climate Change Based on HIMS
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Runoff Simulation in the Heiyukou Sub-basin of Weihe River Basin and its Responses to Climate Change Based on HIMS

机译：基于HIMS的渭河流域黑鱼口子流域径流模拟及其对气候变化的响应

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Weihe River,as the first largest branches of the the Yellow River,is intensely affected by human activities.We took the HeiYuKou Sub-basin (HYK),located in the middle areas of Weihe River Basin,as the study area and constructed a lumped hydrological model to simulate daily runoff and its responses to climate change.Based on the hydrological data,we choose the span from 1991 to 1996 as calibration period,and the period from 1997 to 2000 as validation period.In addition,we established eight climate change scenarios to contribute to analyze the responses of runoff to climate change based on the validated hydrological model.Main results are as follows: (①) Nash-Suttcliffe Coefficient (NSC) and Correlation Coefficient (CC) are relatively high both in the calibration and validation period.In the calibration period,NSC and CC are 0.64and 0.65 respectively,while in the validation span they are 0.63 and 0.66 respectively.②Water balance Error (WE) in the validation is 10％,which is unsatisfactory.The reason is the poor performance of HIMS in the simulation of peak floods,which need to be improved.③the daily runoff is sensitive to the changes of precipitation and potential evaporation,and the sensitivity value to precipitation is higher than to evaporation.the relationship between runoff change and precipitation change is positive,④while that between runoff change and potential evaporation change is inverse.Both of the two responses are nonlinear.
机译：渭河作为黄河的第一大支流，受到人类活动的强烈影响。我们以位于渭河流域中部的黑鱼口子流域（HYK）作为研究区域，构建了一个集总区。模拟每天径流及其对气候变化的响应的水文模型。基于水文数据，我们选择1991年至1996年的跨度作为标定期，选择1997年至2000年的跨度作为验证期。此外，我们还建立了8个气候变化区。主要结果如下：（①）纳什-苏特克利夫系数（NSC）和相关系数（CC）在标定和验证中均较高在校准期内，NSC和CC分别为0.64和0.65，而在验证范围内分别为0.63和0.66。②验证中的水平衡误差（WE）为10％，不令人满意原因是HIMS在洪峰洪峰模拟中的性能较差，有待改进。③日径流量对降水量和潜在蒸发量的变化敏感，对降水的敏感性值高于对蒸发量的关系。径流变化与降水变化之间的关系为正，④径流变化与潜在蒸发变化之间的关系为负。这两个响应都是非线性的。

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