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Economic Impact of 2020 Renewable Energy Scenarios on the Spanish Electricity Market

机译：2020年可再生能源情景对西班牙电力市场的经济影响

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摘要

In order to meet the 20-20-20 European energy policy commitments Spain should continue increasing the amount of electricity production from renewable energy sources (RES) along this decade. This paper analyzes the impact of the future RES deployment on the Spanish power system. Six scenarios are defined by setting different RES installed capacity targets and considering the uncertainty in fuel prices. First, the generation mix is planned for the horizon 2010-20 calculating the investment required in conventional thermal generation for each scenario. Then the system operation, hour by hour, is simulated in 2020 for each generation mix in each scenario. Operational fuel and carbon emission costs are calculated. Costs associated with operational reserves and wind curtailment to counteract or wind power intermittency and predictability errors are also computed. Finally, total systems costs, both investment and operating costs, are compared in the considered scenarios. The economic impact on electricity prices and operational margins of actual power plants is also discussed.
机译：为了满足20-20-20欧洲能源政策承诺，西班牙应继续增加今年可再生能源（RES）的电力生产金额。本文分析了未来res部署对西班牙电力系统的影响。通过设置不同的RES安装容量目标并考虑燃油价格的不确定性来定义六种情况。首先，计划为2010-20-20-20计算各种场景的传统热源所需的投资的Generation组合。然后系统操作，小时逐个小时，在2020中模拟每个场景中的每个一代混合。计算操作燃料和碳排放成本。还计算了与运营储备和风力缩减相关的成本，以抵消或风力间歇性和可预测性错误。最后，在考虑的情景中比较了系统成本，投资和运营成本。还讨论了对实际发电厂的电力价格和运营利润率的经济影响。

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