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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications >A Public Health Model for Simulating Policy Interventions to Reduce Nonmedical Opioid Use
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A Public Health Model for Simulating Policy Interventions to Reduce Nonmedical Opioid Use

机译：模拟政策干预措施减少非医疗阿片类药物的公共卫生模型

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Reports on the development of a system dynamics simulation model of initiation and nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids in the US. The study relies on historical trend data as well as expert panel recommendations that inform model parameters and structure. The model was used to assess simulated public health interventions for reducing initiation and nonmedical use of opioids. Results indicate that interventions which reduce the likelihood of informal sharing of leftover medicine could significantly reduce initiation and nonmedical use. Less effective are supply restrictions, such as drug take-back days, and interventions aimed at reducing the likelihood that nonusers would decide to initiate nonmedical use based on their interactions with nonmedical users. We conclude that system dynamics is an effective approach for evaluating potential interventions to this complex system where the use of pharmaceutical opioids to treat pain can lead to unintended distal outcomes in the public sphere.
机译：关于美国药物阿片类药物开采系统动力学模型的发展报告。该研究依赖于历史趋势数据以及告知模型参数和结构的专家面板建议。该模型用于评估模拟公共卫生干预措施，用于减少阿片类药物的启动和非医疗。结果表明，减少剩余药物非正式共享可能性的干预措施可显着降低启动和非医疗用途。那么有效的供应限制，如药要回天，干预目的是减少非使用者将决定启动基于他们与非医疗用户的交互非医学应用的可能性。我们得出结论，系统动态是评估对该复杂系统的潜在干预的有效方法，其中使用药物阿片类药物治疗疼痛可能导致公共领域的非预期的远端结果。

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