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首页> 外文会议>Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics;Henan Polytechnic University;Southwest Petroleum University;International symposium on management sciences engineering >Comparing the Reliability of Dividend Discount, Discounted Free Cash Flow and Abnormal Earnings Valuation Models in Hi-Tech and Manufacturing Industry
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Comparing the Reliability of Dividend Discount, Discounted Free Cash Flow and Abnormal Earnings Valuation Models in Hi-Tech and Manufacturing Industry

机译：高科技和制造业中股利折价，折现自由现金流和异常收益评估模型的可靠性比较

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摘要

The objective of the article is to empirically compare the reliability of the equity value estimates, for Hi-Tech Industry and Manufacturing Industry companies, derived from three theoretically equivalent valuation models: the dividend discount model (DIV), the discounted free cash flow model (FCF) and the discounted abnormal earnings model (AE).The ex-post data are used to analyze the reliability of the value estimates for firms from both industries.The comparison of the two industries' estimates reliability is based on the estimation accuracy which is defined as actual price less predicted price scaled by actual price and the estimation "explain ability" which is defined as the ability of the estimates in explaining the company share price variations.The results from research show that all the models underestimate the share price.In the cross-sectional analysis, the results reveal that the AE model pricing errors are smaller than those from the other two models.Further analyses on each model's attributes show the importance of book value in the valuation which could be one of the explanations for the AE model's superiority and the difference across the industries.This finding conclude that the AE model may outperform the DIV and FCF models when book value misevaluations are less severe than forecast errors on future payoff, discount rates and growth rate.
机译：本文的目的是从三个理论上等效的估值模型得出的经验值比较高科技工业和制造业公司的股权价值估计的可靠性：股利折现模型（DIV），折现自由现金流模型（ FCF）和折现异常收益模型（AE）。事后数据用于分析两个行业的公司的价值估计的可靠性。两个行业的估计可靠性的比较基于估计准确性，即定义为实际价格减去预测价格后的实际价格和估计“解释能力”，“估计能力”定义为估计在解释公司股价波动中的能力。研究结果表明，所有模型都低估了股价。通过横截面分析，结果表明AE模型的定价误差小于其他两个模型的定价误差。 ch模型的属性显示了账面价值在估值中的重要性，这可能是AE模型的优越性和整个行业差异的解释之一。这一发现得出结论，当账面价值被错误评估时，AE模型的表现可能优于DIV和FCF模型。不如预期的未来收益，折现率和增长率那么严重。

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