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THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF SYSTEMS DESIGN FOR THE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM INCLUDING AN INHERENTLY QUANTITATIVE PHILOSOPHY OF SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT

机译:航空运输系统系统设计的理论框架,包括场景开发的固有定量概念

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This paper provides an overview of aninherently quantitative scenario philosophy forsystems analysis and innovative concept designin the context of the Air Transportation System(ATS). A general perspective of the ATS isvisualized in an “atomic model” withsurrounding external scenario factors and theaircraft as the key connecting element betweenthe main stakeholders: manufacturers, airlines,air navigation service providers (ANSPs) andairports. An iterative waterfall model ispresented, which serves as a mental model ofintegration and decomposition over cascades oflevels of detail from global scenario level to asingle technology. The difference betweenclassical scenario technique and a quantitative,yet participatory methodology of developingscenarios for the ATS is described. In order tointegrate and decompose over a large span oflevels of details, concept design and synthesis isas important as analysis. Further, quantitativescenario development may be considered as thesynthesis of a skillful manipulation of a modeldeck. Scenario Gaming can be a method tosimulate the settlement on requirements ofcomplex socio-technological systems withmultiple stakeholders and conflictingperspectives under radically changing boundaryconditions. Scenario thinking can be aninnovative and explorative instrument ofparticipatory futurology, if not reduced to amere “input for a tool chain”.
机译:本文概述了 固有的定量情景哲学 系统分析和创新概念设计 在航空运输系统中 (ATS)。 ATS的总体观点是 以“原子模型”可视化 周围的外部情景因素和 飞机之间的关键连接元件 主要利益相关者:制造商,航空公司, 空中航行服务提供商(ANSP)和 机场。迭代瀑布模型是 呈现,这是一种心理模型 级联的积分和分解 从全局方案级别到 单一技术。和...之间的不同 经典场景技术和定量的 参与式发展方法论 描述了ATS的场景。为了 在很大范围内整合和分解 详细程度,概念设计和综合水平是 和分析一样重要。此外,定量 情景开发可以被认为是 模型熟练操作的综合 甲板。场景游戏可以是一种方法 模拟对需求的结算 复杂的社会技术系统 多个利益相关者和冲突 急剧变化的边界下的观点 情况。场景思维可能是一个 创新和探索的工具 参与式未来学 仅仅是“工具链的输入”。

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