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Theoretical framework of systems design for the air transportation system including an inherently quantitative philosophy of scenario development

机译:航空运输系统的系统设计理论框架,包括情景开发的固有定量原理

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This paper provides an overview of an inherently quantitative scenario philosophy for systems analysis and innovative concept design in the context of the Air Transportation System (ATS). A general perspective of the ATS is visualized in an "atomic model" with surrounding external scenario factors and the aircraft as the key connecting element between the main stakeholders: manufacturers, airlines, air navigation service providers (ANSPs) and airports. An iterative waterfall model is presented, which serves as a mental model of integration and decomposition over cascades of levels of detail from global scenario level to a single technology. The difference between classical scenario technique and a quantitative, yet participatory methodology of developing scenarios for the ATS is described. In order to integrate and decompose over a large span of levels of details, concept design and synthesis is as important as analysis. Further, quantitative scenario development may be considered as the synthesis of a skillful manipulation of a model deck. Scenario Gaming can be a method to simulate the settlement on requirements of complex socio-technological systems with multiple stakeholders and conflicting perspectives under radically changing boundary conditions. Scenario thinking can be an innovative and explorative instrument of participatory futurology, if not reduced to a mere "input for a tool chain". (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译:本文概述了在航空运输系统(ATS)的背景下用于系统分析和创新概念设计的内在定量场景方案哲学。 ATS的总体透视图以“原子模型”可视化,周围的外部情景因素和飞机是主要利益相关者(制造商,航空公司,空中航行服务提供商(ANSP)和机场)之间的关键连接要素。提出了一个迭代瀑布模型,该模型用作从全局场景级别到单个技术的详细信息级联的集成和分解的思维模型。描述了经典情景技术与开发ATS情景的定量参与方法之间的区别。为了在大范围的细节层次上进行集成和分解,概念设计和综合与分析一样重要。此外,定量方案开发可以被认为是对模型平台熟练操作的综合。情景游戏可以是一种模拟解决方案的方法,该解决方案可以在边界条件发生根本变化的情况下,解决具有多个利益相关者和观点冲突的复杂社会技术系统的需求。方案思考可以成为参与式未来学的一种创新性和探索性工具,如果不仅仅局限于“工具链的投入”。 (C)2016 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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