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首页> 外文会议>International conference of the System Dynamics Society >Dynamic decision making in coupled social-ecological systems: Smallholder farmers' goals, resources and constraints in improving food security and adapting to climate change in Zambia
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Dynamic decision making in coupled social-ecological systems: Smallholder farmers' goals, resources and constraints in improving food security and adapting to climate change in Zambia

机译：耦合的社会生态系统中的动态决策：小农在赞比亚改善粮食安全和适应气候变化方面的目标，资源和制约因素

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Climate change will lead to significant yield reductions in maize dominated farming systems in sub Saharan Africa. Combined with a growing and more demanding population, food systems in this region thus face the challenge of undergoing a considerable transformation in order to meet the challenges of achieving food security and adapting to climate change. Increasing food security and adapting to climate change is a dynamic decision making task that involves a wide range of stakeholders such as farmers, the private sector, consumers, civil society, and policymakers. In this paper, we focus on the particular stakeholder group of small-scale farmers in Zambia and collect interview data on the multiple decisions they make in the course of a year. Our data provides a rich description of farmers' dynamic decision making and their adaptive capacity to deal with existing and future challenges related to food security. As people also need an enabling institutional and policy environment to successfully adapt in the longer term and diversify livelihoods for positive wealth accumulation, we reflect on the use of a multi-method approach that combines our qualitative interviews with quantitative system dynamics modeling.
机译：气候变化将导致撒哈拉以南非洲以玉米为主的耕作系统大幅度减产。加之人口的增长和需求的增加，该区域的粮食系统因此面临着进行重大变革的挑战，以应对实现粮食安全和适应气候变化的挑战。加强粮食安全和适应气候变化是一项动态的决策任务，涉及范围广泛的利益相关者，例如农民，私营部门，消费者，民间社会和决策者。在本文中，我们将重点放在赞比亚小农的特定利益相关者群体上，并收集有关他们在一年中做出的多个决定的访谈数据。我们的数据丰富地描述了农民的动态决策以及他们应对与粮食安全相关的现有和未来挑战的适应能力。由于人们还需要一个有利的机构和政策环境，以在长期内成功地适应环境并实现生计多样化，以实现积极的财富积累，因此，我们反思了使用多方法的方法，该方法将定性访谈与定量系统动力学建模相结合。

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