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首页> 外文会议>Annual Conference and Expo of the Institute of Industrial Engineers >Wild Cards in Strategic Foresight-Dealing with the Unthinkable in the Scenario Technique
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Wild Cards in Strategic Foresight-Dealing with the Unthinkable in the Scenario Technique

机译：战略远见的野货卡与情景技术的不可想象

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In times of increasing complexity and dynamics of the environment, strategic foresight gains more importance. As a result changes in market and business environment need to be thought ahead. A method to think ahead about future developments is the scenario technique. Based on the principles "networked thinking" and "multiple futures" consistent pictures of the futures are developed. Today - more than ever - developments of market and business environment are characterized by unforeseen and unexpected incidents, so called Wild Cards. Wild Cards are future developments or events with a low probability, but a presumably high impact on the conduct of business. Therefore it is essential for companies to be prepared for an abruptly changing environment. Examples such as the 9/11 terrorist attack or the subprime-crisis in the USA showed the immense impact on our economy. But so far Wild Cards are - in spite of their huge impact on the development of a scenario - not sufficiently integrated in the scenario technique. Due to this, we developed an approach to integrate Wild Cards into the scenario technique. Our method enables companies to think ahead about Wild Cards as well as their impact on the environment and the company. Depending on these impacts appropriate preventive and reactive actions are developed. In this paper, a case study from the energy industry shows how to deal with Wild Cards in the scenario technique.
机译：在越来越复杂的环境的复杂性和动态的时候，战略远见率更加重要。因此，市场和商业环境的变化需要思考。提前考虑未来发展的方法是情景技术。根据“网络思维”和“多个期货”的原则，制定了期货的一致性。如今 - 市场和商业环境的不仅仅是市场和商业环境的特点，是不可预见和意想不到的事件，所以称为通配符。野卡是未来的发展或概率低的事件，但对业务的行为可能是高度影响。因此，公司必须为突然变化的环境准备。诸如9/11恐怖袭击或美国的次贷危机等示例表现出对经济的巨大影响。但是，尽管对情景的发展产生了巨大影响 - 但在情景技术中没有充分集成，但仍然是巨大的野马。由于这，我们开发了一种将通配符集成到场景技术的方法。我们的方法使公司能够提前思考通用卡以及对环境和公司的影响。根据这些影响，开发了适当的预防和反应措施。在本文中，能源行业的案例研究表明如何在情景技术中处理通配符。

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