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Comparing Intermittent Demand Forecasters and Effects of Temporal Demand Aggregation

机译:比较间歇性需求预测和时间需求聚集的影响

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Intermittent demand is characterized by demand data that has many time periods with zero demands. Intermittent demand is hard to model by conventional distributions as well as hard to forecast via traditional forecasting techniques. This paper compares traditional forecasting techniques, simple exponential smoothing (SES) and moving average (MA) and intermittent demand forecasting techniques Croston's approach and Revised Croston method, at different levels of intermittent demand scenarios, based on various weighted error policies. The paper also discusses the effect of temporal demand aggregation on forecast error.
机译:间歇性需求的特点是需求数据,其中有许多时间段的需求。 通过传统的分布,间歇性需求难以模型,也是通过传统预测技术难以预测的。 本文比较了传统的预测技术,简单的指数平滑(SES)和移动平均(MA)以及间歇性需求预测技术Croston的方法和修订后的Croston方法,在不同层次的间歇性需求方案的基础上,基于各种加权纠正。 本文还讨论了时间需求聚合对预测误差的影响。

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