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Power Source Evaluation Using Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation and Analytic Hierarchy Process

机译：混合蒙特卡罗模拟和层次分析法相结合的电源评估

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The evaluation of power plants is a multi-criteria decision making problem given the number of criteria involved in the process. In this paper, ten power plants are evaluated based on technological, sustainability, and economic criteria. Considering that a more technologically advanced power plant is assumed to be more sustainable, the technological and sustainability criteria are condensed into one criterion, which is further divided into four sub-criteria: efficiency coefficient, availability, capacity, and reserved-to-production ratio. The economic criterion is also divided into four sub-criteria: capital cost, operation and maintenance cost (fixed or variable), fuel cost, and external cost. This research evaluates the ten power plants using an integrated approach that combines Monte Carlo (MC) simulation and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The simulation-based MC-AHP approach is very efficient, primarily because the decision maker is allowed to represent his/her judgment for each pair-wise comparison as a random distribution (e.g., Triangular distribution), instead of the single estimates used in conventional AHP methods. Moreover, this approach produces more accurate results by reducing the uncertainty associated with single estimates in the conventional AHP. Among the ten power plants evaluated, the results of this research showed that the hydro plant performs the best, while the photovoltaic plant performs the worst.
机译：鉴于过程中涉及的标准数量众多，发电厂的评估是一个多标准决策问题。本文根据技术，可持续性和经济标准对十座发电厂进行了评估。考虑到技术水平更高的发电厂被认为具有更高的可持续性，因此将技术和可持续性标准浓缩为一个标准，该标准又分为四个子标准：效率系数，可用性，容量和保留生产比率。经济标准还分为四个子标准：资本成本，运营和维护成本（固定或可变），燃料成本和外部成本。这项研究使用结合了蒙特卡洛（MC）模拟和层次分析法（AHP）的集成方法评估了十座发电厂。基于仿真的MC-AHP方法非常有效，主要是因为允许决策者将他/她对每个成对比较的判断表示为随机分布（例如，三角分布），而不是常规中使用的单个估计。 AHP方法。而且，这种方法通过减少传统AHP中与单个估计值相关的不确定性来产生更准确的结果。在评估的十座发电厂中，这项研究的结果表明，水力发电厂的性能最佳，而光伏发电厂的性能最差。

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