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Modeling and Application of an Early Warning System of China's Foreign Trade Container Shipping Market

机译：中国外贸集装箱运输市场预警系统的建模与应用

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摘要

To provide effective analysis tools, an early warning system is proposed for China's foreign trade container shipping market. Firstly, by analyzing volatility mechanism of foreign trade container shipping market, a set of monitoring indicators is presented, including container throughput, freight index CCFI and PMI new export orders index et al. The monthly samples of the indicators from 2005 to 2014 are collected. Secondly, the warning threshold and interval of each indicator are determined by the combination method of statistical analysis and expert scoring. According to the design principle of early warning signal system and the indicator state division method, the early warning signal system of China's foreign trade container shipping market is proposed. To monitor the long-term market wave trend, an early warning index model is further proposed by the method of synthetic index, in which the indicator weights are determined by the principal component analysis method. Finally, the comparison results between the system operating and the real market volatility further demonstrate the validity of the proposed system.
机译：为了提供有效的分析工具，提出了针对中国外贸集装箱运输市场的预警系统。首先，通过分析外贸集装箱运输市场的波动机制，提出了一套监测指标，包括集装箱吞吐量，CCFI货运指数和PMI新出口订单指数等。收集2005年至2014年的月度指标样本。其次，采用统计分析和专家评分相结合的方法确定各指标的警告阈​​值和区间。根据预警信号系统的设计原理和指标状态划分方法，提出了我国外贸集装箱航运市场预警信号系统。为了监测长期的市场波动趋势，通过综合指标方法进一步提出了预警指标模型，其中指标权重由主成分分析法确定。最后，系统运行与实际市场波动之间的比较结果进一步证明了所提出系统的有效性。

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