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Reliability Evaluation of a Freeway Guidance System

机译：高速公路制导系统的可靠性评估

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摘要

In order to evaluate the reliability of freeway guidance-system accurately, the indicators about it were studied quantitatively. Firstly, the indicators system, which consists of time reliability, information integrity, information accuracy, coverage area, compliance rate to the guidance-system, was constructed. The meanings of all indicators were illustrated and the relationships among indicators were analyzed. Secondly, the model for calculating the guidance-system reliability of the freeway section was set up by using the probability theory and the structure system reliability method. The statistical method to calculate the guidance-system reliability of freeway networks with the same-service-level sections or different-service-level sections was presented. The probability model of the compliance rate (E_5) which was the strongest random event was proposed. Finally, a freeway guidance-system was employed as an example, P(E_5) was selected as the whole system reliability after monitoring and analyzing the guidance-system. The consequence was verified by the traditional vehicle-statistics theory, the differences between forecast and actual outcome are in [0.06, 0.14]. The result shows the model has higher credibility.
机译：为了准确地评价高速公路制导系统的可靠性，对其指标进行了定量研究。首先建立了指标体系，该指标体系由时间可靠性，信息完整性，信息准确性，覆盖范围，对指导体系的符合率组成。阐明了所有指标的含义，并分析了指标之间的关系。其次，运用概率论和结构系统可靠度方法，建立了高速公路路段制导系统可靠性计算模型。提出了一种统计方法，用于计算具有相同服务水平路段或不同服务水平路段的高速公路网络的制导系统可靠性。提出了最强的随机事件服从率（E_5）的概率模型。最后，以高速公路制导系统为例，在对制导系统进行监测和分析后，选择P（E_5）作为整个系统的可靠性。结果通过传统的车辆统计理论进行了验证，预测结果与实际结果之间的差异在[0.06，0.14]中。结果表明该模型具有较高的可信度。

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