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Can Social Media Predict Voter Intention in Elections? The Case of the 2012 Dominican Republic Presidential Election

机译：社交媒体可以预测选举中的选民意图吗？ 2012年多米尼加共和国总统大选案

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摘要

Polls are the fundamental procedures used to measure voting trends in elections and a useful mechanism to adjust the marketing tactics of campaign commands. Polling not only demands significant resources, but also incorporates several intrinsic barriers that may hinder its applicability. This paper examines an innovative methodology to explore the use of social media as an alternative to enhance the cost-effectiveness of polling while increasing significantly prediction power to overcome the constraints of traditional polls. The proposed methodology is based on the analysis of content gathered from public Web 2.0 technologies, and in this particular case, applied on the scenario of the 2012 Dominican Republic presidential election. Forecasting voting trends obtained from this methodology, and comparing such results with headline final election results, opens a promising road, not only to consolidate knowledge in this field, but also, as an new alternative for practitioners that might remarkably broaden electoral marketing strategies.
机译：投票是衡量选举投票趋势的基本程序，也是调整竞选指挥部营销策略的有用机制。轮询不仅需要大量资源，而且还包含一些可能阻碍其适用性的内在障碍。本文研究了一种创新的方法，以探索社交媒体的使用，以提高民意测验的成本效益，同时显着提高预测能力，以克服传统民意测验的局限性。提议的方法基于对从公共Web 2.0技术收集的内容的分析，并且在这种特殊情况下，适用于2012年多米尼加共和国总统大选的情况。预测从该方法获得的投票趋势，并将这些结果与最终的头条选举结果进行比较，将开辟一条有希望的道路，不仅可以巩固该领域的知识，而且还可以作为从业者的新选择，从而可能显着拓宽选举营销策略。

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