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Can Social Media Predict Voter Intention in Elections? The Case of the 2012 Dominican Republic Presidential Election

机译：社交媒体可以预测选举的选民意图吗？ 2012年多米尼加共和国总统选举的情况

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摘要

Polls are the fundamental procedures used to measure voting trends in elections and a useful mechanism to adjust the marketing tactics of campaign commands. Polling not only demands significant resources, but also incorporates several intrinsic barriers that may hinder its applicability. This paper examines an innovative methodology to explore the use of social media as an alternative to enhance the cost-effectiveness of polling while increasing significantly prediction power to overcome the constraints of traditional polls. The proposed methodology is based on the analysis of content gathered from public Web 2.0 technologies, and in this particular case, applied on the scenario of the 2012 Dominican Republic presidential election. Forecasting voting trends obtained from this methodology, and comparing such results with headline final election results, opens a promising road, not only to consolidate knowledge in this field, but also, as an new alternative for practitioners that might remarkably broaden electoral marketing strategies.
机译：民意调查是用于衡量选举投票趋势的基本程序以及调整竞选指挥营销策略的有用机制。投票不仅需要大量资源，而且还包含几种可能妨碍其适用性的内在障碍。本文探讨了一种创新的方法，探讨了社交媒体的使用作为提高投票成本效益的替代方案，同时增加了显着的预测权力来克服传统民意调查的限制。所提出的方法是基于对公共网络2.0技术收集的内容的分析，在这一特殊情况下，适用于2012年多米尼加共和国总统选举的情景。预测从该方法获得的投票趋势，并将此类结果与标题最终选举结果进行比较，开设了一个有前途的道路，而不仅可以巩固了这一领域的知识，还可以作为可能显着扩大选举营销策略的从业者的新选择。

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