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FORECASTING OF NATURALGAS CONSUMPTION USING GREY-ANN HYBRID METHOD

机译:灰色-ANN混合法预测天然气消费量

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Compared to the predicted value of the residual Grey and ANN method, we can see that the prediction accuracy is improved. This shows the limitations of the residual Grey method that added an almost linear error correction to the predicted value. By estimating error values occurring in process of time series using ANN, a nonlinear error prediction value caused prediction accuracy to increase. In previous studies, prediction by ANN cannot describe in the blackbox, have had difficulty in interpretation. On the other hand, as ANN method was applied to the only error term in this hybrid method, we can reduce the unexplained part because of blackbox and increase the prediction accuracy.
机译:与残差Gray和ANN方法的预测值相比,可以看到预测精度有所提高。这显示了残留格雷方法的局限性,该方法为预测值增加了几乎线性的误差校正。通过使用ANN估算时间序列过程中出现的误差值,非线性误差预测值会导致预测精度提高。在以前的研究中,人工神经网络的预测无法在黑匣子中描述,难以解释。另一方面,由于将ANN方法应用于该混合方法中的唯一误差项,因此可以减少由于黑箱造成的无法解释的部分,并提高预测精度。

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