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首页> 外文会议>IAEE international conference;International Association for Energy Economics >ESTIMATING ABATEMENT COST CURVE - POWER FROM SHORE
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ESTIMATING ABATEMENT COST CURVE - POWER FROM SHORE

机译：估算减排成本曲线-来自分担的力量

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The analysis shows that understanding technological obstacles are of key importance before making decisions on specific projects. Earlier reports have mainly concluded on economy of scale and on green-field as the main parameters on which choosing among projects. The results of this work questions this conclusion and our recommendations are as follows:1. A statistical analysis on an aggregated cost function can be done, where the different possible outcomes can be incorporated through a Monte Carlo simulation2. Green-field projects are on average more cost efficient than brown-field3. Even so, there may be brown-field projects that will come in on quite cost-effective if no technical obstacles are present. A reason for this is that brown-field platforms typically have much higher CO_2 emissions than new field developments.4. The impact of possible technological obstacles imply that no project decision can be made before a thorough engineering study has been made.5. The impact of such technological obstacles outweigh the effect of economy of scale6. Earlier recommendations on electrifying areas of multiple fields are therefore abandoned7. In an early planning situation with unclarified technological project understanding, the cost estimate of a specific project will be very high.Abatement measures in the petroleum sector is in the overall picture very costly compared to other climate measures as well as carbon tax and ETS. Some projects have costs that are more reasonable. Understanding which projects have the lowest abatement cost, demands for a better understanding of the relevant cost factors offshore. Our research indicate that unknown factors leading to obstacles in offshore implementation of new technology, by far outweigh the general economy of scale that is present in power from shore-projects.
机译：分析表明，在对特定项目做出决策之前，了解技术障碍至关重要。较早的报道主要是关于规模经济和绿地的结论，这是在项目之间进行选择的主要参数。这项工作的结果对该结论提出了质疑，我们的建议如下： 1.可以对汇总成本函数进行统计分析，其中可以通过蒙特卡洛模拟法合并不同的可能结果 2.绿地项目平均比棕地项目更具成本效益 3.即使这样，如果不存在技术障碍，可能会有一些棕地项目具有很高的成本效益。造成这种情况的原因是，褐地平台通常比新领域的开发具有更高的CO_2排放量。 4.可能的技术障碍的影响意味着，在进行全面的工程研究之前，无法做出任何项目决策。 5.这些技术障碍的影响大于规模经济的影响 6.因此，放弃了先前关于多个领域通电领域的建议。 7.在对技术项目的了解不明确的早期规划情况下，特定项目的成本估算将非常高。 总体而言，与其他气候措施以及碳税和ETS相比，石油部门的减排措施成本很高。一些项目的成本更为合理。了解哪些项目的减排成本最低，需要更好地了解离岸相关成本因素。我们的研究表明，未知因素导致新技术在海上实施时遇到障碍，远远超过了岸上项目发电所产生的总体规模经济。

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